On-chain analyst: Bitcoin market overheating phenomenon eliminated, but seller pressure remains unrelieved

Gate News reports that on March 18, on-chain data analyst Axel released the latest research report, indicating that the overheating phenomenon in the Bitcoin market has been completely eliminated, but selling pressure remains unresolved, and no clear reversal signals have appeared.

The report shows that the MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin valuation overheating, has fallen 74% from the cycle high of 2.603 in October 2025 to 0.674, well below the average of 1.72 and the first standard deviation track of 3.55, confirming that the valuation bubble has been fully cleared. The current range of 0.5-1.0 corresponds to a neutral cycle zone, with market capitalization only moderately exceeding realized capitalization.

However, the aSOPR (7-day moving average), which reflects market participant profitability, has been below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, with the latest value at 0.9926, indicating the market is still selling at a loss. Since the last time it crossed above 1.0 on January 21, 2026, this indicator has never returned to the profitable selling zone.

Axel emphasizes that 1.0 is a key dividing line between loss-making and profit-making sales. Until aSOPR can stay above 1.0 for multiple trading days, any rebound may face selling pressure. The key issue in the current market is not whether Bitcoin is cheap, but whether selling pressure has been exhausted — at least for now, the answer remains negative.