Arthur Hayes posts: Before the Federal Reserve injects liquidity, it’s hard to see a significant upward move in Bitcoin

Maelstrom’s capital fund Arthur Hayes published an analytical article on April 15 on his personal blog, saying that before the Federal Reserve (Fed) injects liquidity into the market to fill the gap in banks’ balance sheets, Bitcoin is unlikely to see a significant rally; Hayes also disclosed that he currently holds an unleveraged long position in Bitcoin.

Hayes’ Bitcoin stance: the Fed’s liquidity as the key catalyst

According to Arthur Hayes’ blog post, his current holdings are an unleveraged long position in Bitcoin, and he is optimistic about the overall trend of cryptocurrencies. In the piece, Hayes said that before the Federal Reserve truly injects liquidity, Bitcoin’s short-term rebound target range is roughly between $80,000 and $90,000, and significant gains beyond that range are difficult to achieve.

Hayes explicitly explained that his analysis is based on “public data, fundamental mathematical knowledge, and AI agent tools,” and in the article he said, “I know nothing about war,” emphasizing that he cannot predict how global leaders will make decisions. Hayes also noted that his portfolio objective is: in the best-case scenario, to outperform oil and gas, food, and fuel prices; in the worst-case scenario, to outperform most major assets. His positions track the RMB exchange rate through Bitcoin, gold, and bonds, oil stress, and trends in monetary issuance.

Key data cited by Hayes and three major geopolitical scenarios

According to the data Arthur Hayes cited in the article:

· The Federal Reserve’s foreign securities held have shrunk by $63 billion since the outbreak of the conflict

· Non-monetary gold became the United States’ largest export commodity in four of the past five months, up 342% year over year

· Swiss refiners are reprocessing U.S. gold for China, and CIPS trading volume continues to grow

The median annual unemployment benefit across U.S. states is about $28,000, far below the $85,000 to $90,000 annual income of knowledge workers

In the article, Hayes proposed three major geopolitical scenarios: first, after the conflict eases, AI replacing white-collar jobs becomes the main threat. Hayes cites an example from a crypto gaming company, saying that after testing its AI agent work process, it plans to lay off 50%, and he uses the gap between unemployment benefits and knowledge workers’ income to discuss the potential risk of debt default. Second, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and countries buy gold with RMB to avoid dollar settlement. Hayes cited in the article: “the yuan and gold are likely to become the two main currencies for sovereign trade.” Third, the U.S. military reopens the strait with force. Hayes believes that in this scenario, energy production would be damaged, and central banks around the world would be forced to massively increase money issuance.

Frequently Asked Questions

How exactly does Arthur Hayes currently hold Bitcoin?

According to disclosures from Hayes himself in his recent blog post, he currently holds an unleveraged long position in Bitcoin, is optimistic about the overall trend of cryptocurrencies, and does not use leverage.

What are the sources for the Federal Reserve foreign securities reduction data and the gold export data cited by Hayes?

The above data are cited by Arthur Hayes in his blog post, including that the Federal Reserve’s foreign securities holdings were reduced by $63 billion, and that non-monetary gold became the United States’ largest export commodity in four of the past five months, up 342% year over year. Hayes did not separately indicate the original data source institutions in the article.

What prerequisite does Hayes think must be met for Bitcoin to see a significant rally?

According to Arthur Hayes’ blog post, he says that the key prerequisite for Bitcoin to achieve a significant rally is for the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the market; before this condition is met, the short-term rebound target range is roughly between $80,000 and $90,000.