Options traders bet on Bitcoin returning to 80,000, as CPI inflation stabilizes

On Wednesday, Bitcoin stabilized around $70,200 after recent market volatility triggered by the Iran conflict. Data from the on-chain options platform Derive.xyz indicates that current options pricing implies approximately a 35% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $80,000 before the end of June. The U.S. February CPI data also met expectations, providing short-term support to risk markets.

Structural Changes in Options Positions: Reduced Defensive Hedging, Increased Rebound Bets

(Source: The Block)

Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, pointed out that Bitcoin’s options skew has sharply rebounded from deeply negative levels to positive territory, indicating that the market is no longer aggressively hedging against downside risk. The volume of put options sold across various trading venues has also increased, a pattern historically signaling that the market expects prices to remain stable or rise.

Forster stated, “After months of sell-offs and bearish sentiment, traders now seem to believe that the worst of the crypto downturn may be over.”

However, this confidence is not one-sided. Derive.xyz also recorded a large on-chain Bitcoin options trade worth over $130 million, designed to profit if Bitcoin drops to around $65,000 by the end of March. This suggests that institutional investors are expanding their on-chain trading volume while still hedging against macroeconomic uncertainties, rather than solely chasing upside gains.

Dual Interpretations of Inflation Data: Short-term Bullish, Rising Risks Next Month

U.S. February CPI data closely aligned with market expectations:

• Overall CPI (year-over-year): 2.4%, in line with expectations
• Core CPI (quarter-over-quarter): 0.2%, in line with expectations

Short-term impact: Data meeting expectations generally benefits risk markets and boosts sentiment in the short run.

However, Stefan Kohrte, head of macroeconomics at 21Shares, warned that this report reflects inflation conditions before the recent oil price surge caused by the Iran conflict. Next month’s inflation data is likely to rise, making it a “done deal.” The key question is how the Federal Reserve will respond if inflation continues to climb in the coming months. This backdrop creates a complex policy dilemma ahead of the Fed’s March 18 meeting.

Bitcoin’s Macro Resilience: From High-Beta Assets to a Perceived Hybrid Asset

(Source: The Block)

QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin has performed relatively well amid recent geopolitical shocks — despite briefly falling below $63,000 during initial panic selling, it has now rebounded to around $70,000. They believe “the recent price action looks more like stabilization rather than a full restart of risk appetite,” but long-term holders continue to accumulate in the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

More importantly, the perception of Bitcoin’s asset nature is evolving. QCP Capital pointed out that Bitcoin is no longer viewed solely as a high-beta risk asset but increasingly as a macro tool sensitive to liquidity. Rania Gule, senior analyst at XS.com, believes that in an environment where stocks and gold are under pressure, Bitcoin maintaining around $70,000 indicates a slow shift in investor perception — Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a “hybrid asset” rather than just another tech stock. She also noted that the market is still in transition and has not yet established a stable new pattern.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What does options pricing suggest about the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $80,000 before June?
A: According to Derive.xyz data, the implied probability based on current options prices that Bitcoin will break $80,000 before the end of June 2026 is about 35%. This figure reflects the collective subjective probability assessments of options traders regarding this price target.

Q: Why are analysts cautious despite February CPI meeting expectations?
A: Because the February CPI reflects inflation conditions prior to the recent oil price surge caused by the Iran conflict, it does not account for the latest energy cost impacts. Stefan Kohrte from 21Shares stated that next month’s inflation data is “a done deal,” and the key will be how the Fed responds if inflation continues to rise in the coming months.

Q: What are the current bullish and bearish signals in the Bitcoin options market?
A: Bullish signals include the skew rebounding from deep negative levels to positive, increased put selling volume, and a 35% implied probability of breaking $80,000 before June. Bearish signals involve large institutional downside hedges worth over $130 million designed to profit if Bitcoin drops to around $65,000. Overall, the options market presents a “cautiously optimistic but still hedging against downside” mixed outlook.