In early 2026, Bitcoin experienced a rare wave of optimism and massive capital inflows, with approximately $308 billion entering the market in just a few months. However, the price failed to rise in tandem, surprising traders and institutions alike. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the issue isn’t the liquidity scale but that the market structure itself has changed.
He stated that in this cycle, funds are being “absorbed” by the market but are not effectively translating into market capitalization growth, indicating that sellers are continuously releasing chips at various price levels. Long-term holders, whales, and early investors are cashing out during liquidity expansions, and their selling pressure nearly offsets the new demand. As a result, despite record-breaking capital inflows, Bitcoin’s price still struggles to establish a sustained upward trend.
On-chain data shows that supply distribution is becoming a key variable in determining market direction. Unlike the past “funds = rise” logic, today’s Bitcoin resembles a mature market: every rebound triggers a new round of selling. Derivatives hedging amplifies this effect, as traders limit price volatility through risk management, causing market capitalization to oscillate within a range.
Retail investor sentiment is also shifting. More investors are quickly exiting after short-term gains, with caution about pullbacks surpassing long-term conviction. This behavior reinforces the dominance of selling during upward phases and weakens the effectiveness of relying solely on capital inflows to drive prices.
This does not mean Bitcoin is losing value but entering a new phase: selling pressure determines the ceiling, and capital inflows only influence short-term elasticity. Ki Young Ju emphasized that the key moving forward is to observe holder behavior and supply changes, rather than just the scale of funds. If distribution pressure decreases or new variables emerge in macroeconomic and regulatory environments, the market could enter a more sustainable upward cycle.
Until then, Bitcoin remains resilient but no longer “easily takes off.” Patience and an understanding of market structure will be the most important competitive advantages for investors in 2026.
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