XRP ends a 4-day decline with a 3.83% increase, closing at $1.9041. The Senate Agriculture Committee has rescheduled the markup of the Market Structure Bill to January 29, while Canada denies signing an FTA with China to ease tariff pressures. Technically, a breakout above $2.00 is needed, with a medium-term target of $3.00 and a long-term challenge of the $3.66 all-time high.
Senate Review on January 29 Reignites Legislative Hope
On January 26, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee rescheduled the review of the Market Structure Bill draft to January 29. Last week, due to severe weather, the committee postponed the originally scheduled hearing on January 26. This review session allows legislators to examine the bill draft, propose amendments, and vote on whether to send it to the full Senate for a vote.
While the vote outcome does not guarantee final passage, it will help gauge whether bipartisan support exists for cryptocurrency legislation, which is crucial for its eventual full Senate approval. U.S. crypto program host and reporter Eleanor Terrett shared the latest from the Agriculture Committee: according to Politico, Kansas Republican Senator Dr. Roger Marshall has agreed not to propose his credit card surcharge amendment during Thursday’s committee hearing, and Illinois Democrat Senator Dick Durbin is also expected not to introduce the amendment.
Earlier, the White House and crypto advocates engaged in lobbying over the weekend. This could facilitate the bill’s smooth passage through committee. However, Terrett listed other amendments still pending review before Thursday, including: ethical standards for government officials and their families, a requirement for the CFTC to have at least four sitting commissioners after bipartisan negotiations, a ban on rescue offerings for crypto issuers, anti-fraud provisions for crypto ATMs, and restrictions on foreign adversaries’ participation in the U.S. crypto market.
Importantly, the draft bill must be merged with the Senate Banking Committee’s Market Structure Bill, which faces challenges regarding stablecoin yields. Nonetheless, given previous price movements, XRP news today indicates traders should expect the token’s price to be sensitive to the voting outcome. Passage of the bill could boost buying interest, supporting a bullish outlook. Conversely, if the bill stalls, XRP may face significant selling pressure.
Easing US-Canada Trade Tensions Boosts Market Sentiment
Another major positive for XRP comes from the easing of geopolitical risks. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney denied reports of signing a free trade agreement with China, alleviating concerns that Canadian exports to the U.S. might face 100% tariffs. Previously, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs up to 100% on Canadian goods if trade arrangements with China were seen as providing a “transshipment channel” for Chinese products into the U.S.
This tariff uncertainty had pressured risk assets over the past weeks, with cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt. After Carney’s clear denial, market fears of an escalation in the North American trade war significantly declined, and risk appetite rebounded. As a high-risk asset class, cryptocurrencies tend to benefit first in such environments. XRP’s rebound on Monday, January 26, was partly due to this macro risk mitigation.
Notably, XRP rose 3.83% that day, partially reversing the 4.16% decline from the previous day, closing at $1.9041. The token outperformed the overall crypto market, which gained 2.27%. This relative strength indicates XRP is receiving dual support from progress in crypto legislation and geopolitical risk reduction.
However, the easing of trade tensions is not permanent. Trump’s tariffs remain highly uncertain, and any new trade frictions could quickly reverse the current optimism. Investors should continue monitoring North American trade negotiations and whether the Trump administration adopts a similarly tough stance on other trade partners.
Historical Crypto Legislation Impact on XRP Price
XRP must be understood in a historical context. After the House passed the Market Structure Bill on July 17, 2025, XRP surged 14.69%, closing at $3.4866. However, threats of a U.S. government shutdown and the actual shutdown in October caused XRP to plummet to a December low of $1.7712. While other factors influenced Q4 buying interest, delays in crypto legislation were key.
This pattern reveals XRP’s high sensitivity to legislative progress. Unlike more widely accepted cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, XRP’s value proposition heavily depends on regulatory clarity. Ongoing legal disputes between Ripple and the SEC make regulatory stance a decisive factor for XRP’s price.
The passage of the Market Structure Bill could establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets like XRP, potentially classifying them as commodities rather than securities. This classification is critical for Ripple and XRP holders, as it would end years of legal uncertainty and pave the way for institutional adoption and compliant trading. Conversely, if the bill stalls or is significantly amended in the Senate, market confidence in XRP could again collapse.
The possibility of another government shutdown adds another layer of significance to Thursday’s vote. If a shutdown occurs, further lobbying and review votes could be substantially delayed. The hypothetical government shutdown in 2025 dampens hopes for legislation favorable to crypto before year-end, pressuring XRP. Therefore, the January 29 review is not only a key legislative milestone but also an important window for market assessment of legislative timelines.
Technical Analysis: $2.00 is the Key Breakout Level
(Source: Trading View)
Despite a fundamentally optimistic outlook, technical signals remain bearish. XRP is still below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, often seen as medium-term bearish indicators. The 50-day MA is at $2.0237, and the 200-day MA is at $2.2833, forming major resistance zones for an upward breakout.
Key technical levels to watch include support at $1.85, $1.75, and $1.50. Resistance levels include $2.00, $2.50, $3.00, and $3.66. On the daily chart, breaking above $2.00 would pave the way to test the 50-day MA. Sustained breakout above the 50-day MA would signal a short-term trend reversal, with targets rising toward $2.20.
Furthermore, surpassing $2.20 would open the door to test the 200-day MA. Maintaining above EMA lines would reaffirm bullish short- and medium-term targets. From the current price of $1.9041, a move to break $2.00 requires about 5% gain, which is entirely feasible within crypto’s daily volatility range.
However, positive fundamentals continue to offset bearish technical signals, reinforcing bullish prospects. XRP’s rebound from December’s low of $1.7712, with a 3.13% rise in January, further consolidates its bullish structure and short-term targets. Reclaiming $2.00 would allow bulls to aim for the upward trendline. Continuous breakout above the trendline would reaffirm a trend reversal and bullish structure.
Conversely, if the price continues to fall below the downward trendline, dropping below $1.85, the bullish structure would invalidate, indicating a trend reversal. In this scenario, XRP could test deeper supports at $1.75 or even $1.50. Maintaining support at $1.85 is crucial; otherwise, the mid-term bullish thesis faces serious challenges.
Three Major Price Targets and Pathways
Based on current fundamentals and technicals, XRP shows a clear three-phase price target:
Short-term (1-4 weeks) target of $2.50: Requires breaking resistance at $2.00 and confirming above the 50-day MA. Renewed buying interest in XRP spot ETFs supports a bullish short-term outlook.
Medium-term (4-8 weeks) target of $3.00: Expectations of Senate passage of the Market Structure Bill grow, with increasing utility of XRP and ETF demand reinforcing this target. Achieving $3.00 entails roughly a 57% increase from current levels, plausible in a crypto bull cycle.
Long-term (8-12 weeks) target of $3.66: This is XRP’s all-time high on exchanges. Senate approval of the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm this long-term target. Breaking $3.66 could push future 6-12 month targets toward $5.00. This stepwise target setting offers a clear risk-reward framework.
However, XRP’s bullish outlook faces multiple downside risks. If the Bank of Japan signals multiple rate hikes to reach hawkish neutral rates (possibly between 1.5% and 2.5%), the rising neutral rate would narrow the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. This could trigger yen carry trades unwinding, similar to mid-2024. Such unwinding would negate short-term bullish sentiment.
Additionally, reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, further delays in the legislative process, partisan challenges, and outflows from XRP spot ETF reports could pressure crypto markets, causing XRP to fall below $1.85 and signaling a reversal to a bear trend.
Key Impact of Fed and Central Bank Policies
XRP cannot ignore macro monetary policy influences. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference on January 28 (Wednesday) will be pivotal. If Powell signals dovishness, hinting at rate cuts in the first half of 2026, risk assets including XRP could rally. Conversely, emphasizing persistent inflation pressures and delaying rate cuts could lead to sell-offs.
The Bank of Japan’s stance is equally important. A dovish Fed and a dovish BOJ (possibly maintaining rates between 1% and 1.25%) would boost market sentiment. Strong demand for U.S. XRP spot ETFs and progress on the legislative front would further reinforce this constructive bias.
In summary, these scenarios support a mid-term (4-8 weeks) rally toward $3.00. After 12 weeks, these catalysts could push XRP to new all-time highs of $3.66. Looking ahead, upcoming Senate hearings are critical for XRP’s near-term price prospects. Progress in the draft text will boost expectations of Senate approval, thereby increasing demand for XRP.
