BlockBeats News, December 21 — Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster stating that prediction markets are a good remedy for dealing with emotional topics and crazy opinions, citing two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is “inevitable,” while on the prediction market Polymarket, the market question “Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?” shows only a 3% probability (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors are betting to inflate the probability). Vitalik said that many users on social media exaggerate by claiming “something will definitely happen” to create panic or attract attention, but they are not responsible for it; prediction markets, on the other hand, involve real money bets and are more likely to reflect true probabilities, helping to counter these “crazy opinions.” Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (which can create panic without responsibility) and mainstream media (clickbait headlines), prediction markets have a stronger “truth-seeking” motivation. Telling the truth can earn genuine rewards, while lying carries strong economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket for the probability can help calm down, and vice versa, it can also prevent false hope. Prediction markets are the “antidote” to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.
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