Jin10 data reported on October 10th, Chief Strategist Shoki Omori from Mizuho Securities stated that if Kishi Suga fails to be elected as Japan's Prime Minister, and a candidate advocating for fiscal tightening and supporting Central Bank interest rate hikes emerges, the “Kishi trade” closing position may be triggered. Although the opposition parties have differing opinions, making this a non-mainstream scenario, the market may begin to price in the risks of a policy reversal, which would push down the USD/JPY Exchange Rate. However, the yen is likely to continue maintaining its financing/arbitrage currency attributes in the short term, and it is expected that this situation will not lead to the USD/JPY exchange rate breaking below the 140 level.
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