After months of deliberation, US President Donald Trump has finally decided to announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair on the evening of January 30 (Beijing time). The news sent global financial markets into a state of heightened tension.
On the Gate platform, the market fear index has dropped to an "Extreme Fear" level of 16, and the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating sharply around $82,800. Over the past 24 hours, global contract liquidations have reached $204 million.
01 The Candidates in Focus
Trump’s shortlist for Fed Chair was narrowed down through several rounds, leaving four main contenders. Among them, Kevin Warsh has emerged as the frontrunner, with his odds of selection surging to 96% on prediction markets.
Another strong candidate is Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock. He oversees approximately $2.4 trillion in assets, making him one of the most influential figures in global finance.
These two candidates represent distinctly different policy directions. Warsh has long been viewed as a "moderate hawk," emphasizing that controlling inflation remains one of the Fed’s core responsibilities.
Notably, Warsh has recently shown a clear shift toward a "dovish" stance on interest rates, even stating that "the greatest threat to the Fed’s credibility would be not cutting rates at this time."
Rieder, on the other hand, believes that the Fed’s policy challenge in 2026 will move beyond inflation control and focus on labor market issues. He has even advocated for aggressively lowering rates to 3% to better align with labor market equilibrium.
02 Market Dynamics and Policy Shifts
Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15 this year. Since returning to the White House, Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell’s monetary policy and even threatened to remove him from office.
On January 29, Trump took to social media to criticize Powell for "refusing to cut rates again," insisting that "US interest rates should be the lowest in the world."
At its meeting concluded on January 28, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. This decision clearly runs counter to Trump’s push for immediate and substantial rate cuts.
Trump has even publicly stated his desire to lower rates to "1% or even lower" to help the Treasury reduce the high financing costs of the $30 trillion national debt.
03 Independence and Market Reaction
The Fed’s independence has long been a cornerstone of financial market stability. As the Trump administration moves to select the next Fed Chair, concerns about the central bank’s independence are rising in the market.
Ida Shen, Investment Director at PIMCO, commented, "We’re not overly concerned about the Fed’s independence, and we believe the current candidates for Chair are all high-quality."
However, David Zhao, Global Market Strategist for Asia Pacific at Invesco, warned, "Any perceived erosion of the Fed’s independence—even if it’s just a matter of optics—could undermine confidence in US monetary policy and the broader financial system."
For the cryptocurrency market, any weakening of Fed independence could put pressure on the US dollar. Zhao noted that gold and other perceived safe-haven assets could benefit as alternatives.
Data from the Gate platform shows that Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings recently, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to the upcoming Fed Chair announcement.
04 Crypto Market Data Insights
Following Trump’s announcement about the Fed Chair nomination, the crypto market on the Gate platform has seen notable volatility. Data shows global contract open interest has reached $6.472 billion, up 1.79% in 24 hours.
The market fear index has dropped to an "Extreme Fear" level of 16, down sharply from 26 yesterday, highlighting intense market anxiety.
In terms of liquidation data, the past 24 hours have seen $204 million in total global liquidations, with $191 million from long positions and $12.98 million from shorts. On the Gate platform, liquidations totaled $56.39 million, with longs accounting for the majority.
Large-scale liquidations have occurred frequently, with several exchanges seeing single liquidation orders exceeding $100,000. This points to high leverage and heightened investor nervousness.
05 Investor Strategies
Manulife Investment Management’s latest institutional outlook suggests that 2026 may usher in a period of synchronized global fiscal and monetary easing. With the Fed Chair selection nearing completion, the likelihood of US rate cuts this year is rising, and the magnitude may exceed market expectations.
Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies—as a non-traditional asset class—could benefit from abundant global liquidity. Investors should pay close attention to the Fed’s policy direction and its impact on US dollar liquidity.
Wellington Management macro strategist Matt Rose notes that the Fed remains highly data-dependent. If unemployment stabilizes further and inflation continues to decline, pressure for rate cuts from the new Chair could intensify in the second half of the year.
However, he also warns of "hawkish risks," including unemployment falling back toward 4% and a potential resurgence of inflation later in the year.
For crypto investors, closely monitoring Fed policy shifts is crucial. A more accommodative rate environment typically favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
It’s recommended that investors track the market fear index and liquidation data on the Gate platform. These real-time indicators can help gauge market sentiment and identify potential risk points.
Outlook
On the Gate trading platform, Bitcoin’s price hit a daily low of $81,000. Amid intense market volatility, both bulls and bears are searching for direction.
Tonight (Beijing time), Trump will officially announce his nominee for Fed Chair. Whether Warsh or Rieder prevails, the new Chair will face a pivotal challenge: balancing Trump’s demand for "unacceptably low" rates with the Fed’s traditional mandate to fight inflation.
The crypto market is bracing for a fresh wave of volatility. As the global financial landscape evolves, digital assets—serving as a complement to the traditional financial system—may see their role become increasingly prominent.
