On February 11 (EST), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a jobs report that was both "unexpected and yet understandable" to the markets—January’s nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000, not only far surpassing economists’ forecast of 55,000, but also more than doubling December’s revised figure of 48,000.
The significance of these numbers goes well beyond the headline figures. Just before the report’s release, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was already cautioning the public about a potential slowdown in job growth. Yet after the data dropped, President Trump wasted no time taking to Truth Social, turning the robust employment figures into a political argument for rate cuts.
On one side, traders rapidly slashed their bets on imminent rate cuts. On the other, the White House proclaimed "the world’s lowest interest rates." On this nonfarm payroll night in February 2026, the crypto market executed a textbook example of "predicting your prediction" amid macroeconomic crosscurrents.
The Two Faces of Nonfarm Payrolls: Traders See Hawks, White House Sees Doves
Judging by the headline, the addition of 130,000 jobs marked the strongest monthly growth in recent months. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3% in January, hitting its lowest level since August 2025.
But a closer look reveals some flaws in the report:
- Significant structural imbalances: Healthcare and social assistance accounted for 122,000 of the new jobs, nearly the entire increase; federal government employment shrank by a net 34,000, as Trump’s post-election "delayed resignation plan" began to show up in the data.
- Annual revisions conveniently overlooked: Total employment for 2025 was revised down by a substantial 862,000—meaning there was barely any hiring last year, and January’s rebound looks more like a minor bounce off the bottom.
Yet the market ignored these details. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in March plunged from 21.7% before the data release to just 6.0%. The odds of no rate cut in June jumped from 24.8% to 41.1%. Bets on Polymarket were even more extreme, with traders nearly giving up hope for a rate cut in the first half of the year.
The surprising reversal came from the White House.
Trump’s wording on Truth Social was telling: "Great jobs numbers! America should be paying much less interest on borrowing. We’re once again the world’s number one power, so we deserve the lowest rates ever."
This is a deliberately de-technical narrative—reducing complex rate decisions to "a strong nation deserves low costs," sidestepping both the Fed’s independence and stubborn services inflation. Hassett was even more direct: "The Fed still has plenty of room to cut rates."
Milan’s "Last Stand": Why Supply-Side Doves Matter
Amid this policy-market divide, an outgoing Fed governor became a key voice.
Stephen Milan—who joined the Fed Board in September 2025—voted against every policy decision, not because he opposed rate cuts, but because he thought they were too slow. His term ended January 31, but he didn’t go quietly.
Responding to the question, "Why cut rates when jobs are so strong?" Milan offered a three-layered argument, each challenging the Fed’s traditional framework:
First: Strong jobs ≠ time to slam the brakes. Milan believes the U.S. economy can still absorb about one million new jobs without triggering inflation. Cutting rates now isn’t pouring fuel on the fire—it’s providing extra insurance.
Second: Supply-side reforms are rewriting the lower bound for rates. This is the core—and most controversial—part of Milan’s logic: Trump’s deregulation, early retirements, and federal workforce reductions (down 360,000) are all boosting total factor productivity. If the supply side can run faster, the demand side shouldn’t be held back by high rates.
Third: Housing inflation is coming down, and tariffs aren’t as scary as they seem. Milan estimates core inflation is now around 2.3%, within the margin of error for the 2% target.
This "supply creates room for rate cuts" logic remains a minority view within the Fed. Its importance isn’t in changing the March decision, but in representing a new narrative the White House is trying to plant at the Fed. When Chairman Powell’s term ends in May and Kevin Warsh takes over, this logic may shift from "personal dissent" to "the chairman’s agenda."
Crypto Market’s Double Reflex: Driven by Sentiment, Pricing the Future
After the jobs data release, the crypto market didn’t simply react with a one-way "bad news, price drops" move. Instead, it went through a complex emotional cycle.
Phase One (immediately after release): Traders grew optimistic about a "soft landing," and Bitcoin briefly broke through the $68,000 resistance.
Phase Two (digesting and repricing): As the market absorbed the medium-term implications of "delayed rate cuts," risk assets came under renewed pressure. Bitcoin dipped below $66,000, falling more than 5% in 24 hours.
Phase Three (after midnight UTC+8 on the 12th): Bitcoin quickly rebounded from a low of $65,984, surging past $67,000 and recovering more than half its intraday losses.
This "sharp drop, deep V rebound" pattern is classic opportunistic buying. Some are betting the market overreacted to the jobs data, expecting traders to reprice once the dust settles—believing the Fed will be forced to turn dovish in the second half of the year as high rates become unsustainable.
As of February 12, 2026, the latest spot USD quotes on Gate are:
| Token | Gate Spot Price (USD) | 24h Change | Market Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $67,558.0 | +0.97% | Pulled back from above $68,000 post-jobs data; key support to watch at $66,000 |
| ETH | $1,979.0 | +1.66% | Pulled back in tandem; lost and regained the $2,000 mark |
| GT | $7.04 | +3.23% | Gate’s native token shows independent resilience; ecosystem value continues to be validated |
| SOL | $81.6 | +1.09% | Competitive Layer 1s generally under pressure |
According to Gate’s Private Wealth Management team, current market volatility is more a short-term correction driven by macro expectations than a reversal of crypto fundamentals. Bitcoin’s market dominance remains high at 58.65%, indicating capital is still concentrating in the core asset.
Consensus Amid Divergence: Capital Votes with Its Feet on Gate
A noteworthy trend: macro hedge funds are rapidly gathering on the Gate platform.
CoinGlass data shows that within four hours of the jobs report, open interest in Gate’s index contracts surged—HK50 (Hang Seng Index) positions jumped 1,841.43%, US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) rose 1,126.15%, with NAS100 and SPX500 also ranking among the top four gainers.
This highlights the defining feature of macro trading in 2026: markets no longer blindly trust policy guidance, but prefer to price assets independently based on real-time data, using multi-asset tools for hedging.
For crypto traders, this means two key takeaways:
Short-term volatility drivers are shifting: The market’s main question has moved from "Will there be a rate cut?" to "When and how many?" The upcoming CPI report on February 13 could trigger a similar adjustment if inflation surprises to the upside.
Structural opportunities are emerging: As Gate’s Private Wealth Management team suggests, periods of heightened volatility are prime windows for optimizing portfolio structure. Using BTC and ETH as portfolio anchors (recommended allocation: 40%-50%) and leveraging Gate Earn and Staking for yield during holding periods is a practical strategy for riding out the cycle.
Conclusion
The jobs data hasn’t closed the door on rate cuts, but it has raised the bar. CME data shows that the market now expects the first rate cut in July, with a total reduction of about 51 basis points for the year.
The next critical variables are clear:
- February 13 CPI report: If month-on-month inflation exceeds expectations, the probability of a June rate cut will shrink further;
- The pace of Trump’s policy rollouts: Changes in tariffs, immigration, and fiscal legislation will affect the sustainability of employment data;
- On-chain metrics and ETF flows: The strength of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remains a real-time window into institutional sentiment.
When economic data doesn’t support rate cuts but policymakers are determined to cut, whose lead should the market follow? For the past fifteen years, the answer was "follow the Fed." But in 2026, the White House is trying to change that.
Bitcoin’s rapid rebound after a sharp drop reflects risk assets’ tentative acceptance of the supply-side rate cut narrative. It may not be the right call, but it shows how urgently capital is searching for an outlet.
On the Gate platform, we’re seeing smart money make its move—not panicking and exiting, but using volatility to rebalance portfolios. Market swings will eventually pass, and those who optimize their structure and hold their core positions during turbulence are often best placed to seize the next narrative-driven rally.
