According to Gate market data, as of December 29, the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating between $86,500 and $90,000. Today, it briefly touched $90,200 before pulling back slightly, and is currently quoted at $89,650.
Beneath the seemingly calm surface, on-chain data tells a very different story: "whales" holding more than 10,000 BTC have been consistently selling since August, while wallets holding less than 1,000 BTC remain steadily in accumulation mode.
01 Whale Awakening Amid Market Volatility
The Bitcoin market in 2025 is showing clear signs of institutionalization. According to Glassnode’s accumulation trend score, large holders with more than 10,000 BTC have acted as "persistent sellers" for three consecutive months.
This selling behavior aligns with Bitcoin’s broader consolidation trend this year, with prices stabilizing near the $100,000 level.
Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals that a large amount of previously dormant Bitcoin is returning to circulation. The movement of assets from these long-term holders is exerting significant downward pressure on current market prices.
Market polarization is increasingly evident: on one side, whales continue to distribute; on the other, smaller holders remain committed to accumulation.
02 Three Drivers Behind Large-Scale Whale Transfers
A combination of factors has triggered unusual whale activity in the Bitcoin market at the end of 2025. These include changes in the macroeconomic environment as well as structural adjustments within the crypto market itself.
The primary driver is the clarification of the global regulatory environment. On July 18, 2025, the "GENIUS Act"—regarded as a foundational law for the crypto industry—officially came into effect.
This is the first federal regulatory framework in US history for stablecoins and digital assets, clearing legal hurdles for banks to participate in crypto custody.
Also in 2025, leading exchanges such as Gate made significant progress in global compliance, securing major licenses including the EU MiCA license.
The second factor is the structural imbalance between institutional demand and mining supply. According to analysis from 99Bitcoins, corporate and institutional buyers are absorbing roughly 1,755 BTC per day, far exceeding the daily mining output of 900 BTC.
This supply-demand dynamic has reinforced Bitcoin’s role as a "capital absorber," especially as traditional safe-haven assets lose their appeal.
The third key factor is the interaction between market cycles and price signals. After hitting an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction. As of December 29, prices have retraced about 25% from the peak. This volatility has created a window for long-term holders to realize profits.
03 From Market Polarization to Investment Strategies
With diverging behaviors between whales and retail investors, different investor profiles need tailored strategies to navigate market changes. On-chain behavioral patterns offer valuable insights for strategy formulation.
Long-term investors should focus on potential accumulation opportunities in the $110,000 to $130,000 range. This approach is based on sustained institutional inflows and the trend of narrowing Bitcoin volatility.
At the same time, short-term traders may need to pay closer attention to market sentiment and liquidity shifts. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to its lowest level since November 2023, a signal worth monitoring closely.
For investors seeking diversified allocations, tokenized real-world assets present new opportunities. Driven by regulatory clarity and DeFi innovation, this sector is projected to reach $2 trillion in scale by 2028.
04 Historical Comparison and Cycle Positioning of Whale Activity
Compared to previous cycles, whale activity at the end of 2025 is showing greater complexity. Glassnode data indicates that, although total Bitcoin supply sold over three months increased by 12%, illiquid supply held for over a year declined by only 2%.
This contradiction suggests that while whales are taking profits, they remain confident in the long-term outlook and are reluctant to exit completely.
Market analysts point out that Bitcoin may currently be in the "belief-denial" phase, where optimism and caution coexist. The drop in prices and related indicators in late September signals that the market has entered a reset phase, setting the stage for a new cycle turning point.
From a macro perspective, the total crypto market capitalization in 2025 soared from around $1.6 trillion to a record-breaking $4 trillion.
This growth was primarily driven by institutional capital, with spot Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional channels seeing net inflows of $44.2 billion in 2024–2025, accounting for 5.7%–7.4% of circulating Bitcoin supply.
Outlook
As Bitcoin hovered near the $90,000 high on December 29, an unusual transaction flashed across the dashboard of a leading analytics firm. Over $80 million worth of Bitcoin was transferred between unknown wallets—not a panic sale, but a carefully orchestrated asset reallocation.
Meanwhile, Gate’s global user base has surpassed 47 million, with monthly spot trading volume reaching $160 billion by the end of 2025. Evolving from a trading platform into a comprehensive Web3 ecosystem, Gate is witnessing the crypto market’s profound shift from "retail-driven" to "institutional-led."
