GoldenIntelligenceAgency

$XAUUSD Gold next week: Limited upside, the real gold pit is below
Dear old friends, over this weekend, many of you probably stared at your phones unable to sleep.
The US and Iran are at it again, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated to bombing a Moscow refinery—two geopolitical hotspots flaring up simultaneously. Following the usual script, with this weekend's combination of events, a lower open for gold on Monday morning is highly likely—don't get me wrong, it's not that safe-haven demand has failed; it's a liquidity stampede: after Friday's close, both the Middle East and Eastern

Why has the dollar rebounded so strongly recently? The mainstream view will tell you: because of inflation resilience, because central banks worldwide are hawkish. Is that really the case? Completely wrong. You only see the tip of the iceberg above the surface, but you don’t understand the ultimate deadly game beneath the water.
Today, I’ll take you through the haze. Reveal a counter-intuitive truth: This wave of the dollar’s strong rebound is precisely a byproduct of de-dollarization taking a historic and critical step.
Still confused? If de-dollarization is accelerating, shouldn’t the dollar

If the Bank of Japan's "hawkish" stance announces a 50 basis point rate hike on June 16, the interest rate will jump directly from 0.75% to 1.25%.
The yen will violently surge to the 150 level, triggering a global stock market crash (U.S., European, and Korean markets), and gold will also be pulled down.
As one of the world's largest creditor countries, Japan's sudden large rate hike will lead to a global capital flow back to Japan, causing intense fluctuations in stocks, bonds, currencies, and precious metals.

Fundamentals: Gold prices touched a low of $4,268 on Monday before rebounding and stabilizing, as signals of ceasefire from Israel and Iran eased safe-haven pressures. Just as the market worries whether gold prices will further collapse, bullish forces are quietly gathering, pushing prices to gradually recover. However, strong US employment data has boosted expectations of interest rate hikes, keeping the dollar high and limiting gold price gains. The market is awaiting this week's CPI and PPI data to assess the Federal Reserve's next interest rate path.
Technical: Gold on the H4 timeframe dec

Gold Night of Panic | The Truth Behind CPI "4.2%": Half is Old News, Half is Illusion
In-Depth Analysis | Non-Farm Payrolls are just the appetizer; Tonight’s CPI is the "Judgment Day"? Institutions Have Long Been Laying Out Plans in Secret
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Last Friday, non-farm payroll data doubled expectations, causing gold to plummet straight down, and panic spread across the internet.
But this is just the "appetizer." Tonight at 8:30, the US May CPI data will be released with a bang. The market expects 4.2%. Is this a sign of runaway inflation, or a carefully woven "data ill

The long-term bullish foundation remains unchanged, but the short- to medium-term “range-bound grind to the bottom” is far from over.
01. Long-term framework: inevitable under the collapse of US dollar credit
Our underlying logic has never changed: gold is the best asset to hedge against US dollar credit risk.
The hollowing out of US industry leads to a spiral increase in the size of US debt, and the long-term downward trend of US dollar credit is certain. As long as this major premise holds, gold’s strategic value as a “counterparty to the dollar” remains. Even if US Treasury yields rise in s

Overnight gold prices initially declined then rebounded, gaining effective support at low levels and stabilizing. The bullish signals during the session strengthened, and the market entered a rebound correction phase. For intraday trading, it is recommended to buy on dips mainly.
From the news perspective, several major economic data releases have recently come out, and overall market sentiment is cautious. The tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors has caused short-term fluctuations in gold prices. However, negative sentiment has largely been released, and market risk aversion demand

Over the weekend, conflict between Iran and Israel flared up again, but was quickly brought to a halt by Trump, with only limited short-lived impact. The market is still optimistic about a US-Iran agreement. Strong non-farm payroll data lifted the US dollar further, and the market raised rate-hike expectations even more. Gold and silver are under pressure. In the short term, geopolitical tensions keep shifting back and forth, which may cause gold prices to fluctuate repeatedly, but the agreement will eventually be reached. The overall logic still leans toward a rebound with a bearish bias; for

$XAUUSD Our long-term bullish logic for gold has never changed: gold is the best asset to hedge against the credit risk of the US dollar.
The hollowing out of American industry has led to a spiral increase in US debt, and the long-term downward trend of dollar credit is certain. As long as this fundamental premise remains, gold’s strategic value as a “counterparty to the dollar” is intact. Even if short-term US debt yields rise, from a longer cycle perspective, it still presents a strategic window favorable to gold allocation.
02. Short- to medium-term dilemma: the “clamp” of triple pressures

$XAUUSD Recently, as long as you open the financial news, all you hear is “Middle East situation,” “central bank gold purchases,” and “inflation resilience.”
But beneath the surface, something extremely strange is happening on Wall Street: gold has been swinging in a wide range for two straight weeks—unable to rise much or fall deeply—almost as if it has been nailed in place by an invisible hand.
Today, I want to take you out of the traditional macro narrative and dive into the deep end to see what the big players on Wall Street have really been doing lately.
The conclusion comes first: today

Tonight after 8 o'clock, the non-farm payrolls preview indicators are coming, and more frightening is that it may serve as a prelude to the main force signaling a deadlock will be broken.
We don't know when gold will return to 4100, or when we will see over 800 gold again domestically, but this possibility still exists, only requiring decisive negative news and large-volume bearish candles to confirm.
Before that, we remain cautious; last Saturday, we reminded everyone that the current market is constrained within a range, in the stage of main force oscillation and accumulation.
These pa

June 3rd Afternoon Analysis
Today, gold generally remains under pressure and fluctuates sideways. U.S. economic data continues to be relatively strong, with inflation slowing down at a sluggish pace, further delaying market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields remain high and stable, continuously suppressing gold price rebounds. Institutional long positions are being reduced steadily, with short-term bearish sentiment prevailing. However, geopolitical uncertainties persist, coupled with global central banks continuously buying gold on dips, prov

$XAUUSD How institutions view (huge disagreements)
Goldman Sachs: Firmly maintains the year-end target of 5400, with the core being central bank gold purchases + the long-term logic of de-dollarization unchanged
Morgan Stanley: Downgraded the second-half target to 5200, believing gold has returned to the traditional framework dominated by real interest rates
Hua An Fund: The medium- to long-term logic (fiscal deficit + central bank gold purchases + credit hedging) remains unchanged, but admits that short-term data faces headwinds
Plain language translation: Long-term bulls believe "central ba

$XAUUSD 6.3 Morning Gold Trading Strategy Analysis
Yesterday, gold experienced a deep decline, with prices falling sharply from high levels under pressure, then slightly rebounding at the bottom of the session, ultimately closing around 4483. The overall pattern shifted from previous high-level oscillation to a weaker consolidation, with technical indicators forming a downward pressure structure.
This week’s key focus is on the evening ADP non-farm employment data and Friday’s major non-farm payroll report. Before the data releases, the market is unlikely to develop a one-sided trend, main

The US-Iran negotiations are still in a tug-of-war stage, and the market generally predicts that the implementation of the subsequent agreement is only a matter of time. If the agreement is reached, both sides are likely to extend the ceasefire agreement and restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, directly suppressing crude oil prices. Falling oil prices will temporarily ease global inflation risks, providing short-term support for gold prices and causing a slight upward movement; but from a medium to long-term perspective, the cooling of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and the g