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#广场预测世界杯赢40000U World Cup | 13! Historic Record for Own Goals in This Edition! Egyptian Defender Scores 2 Own Goals in a Single Tournament, Tying as Biggest Unlucky Player in History
In the Round of 16 match of the World Cup kicking off at 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 4, Egyptian defender Hani scored an own goal, "helping" Australia level the score at 1-1. Since then, this edition of the World Cup has produced 13 own goals, surpassing 2018 and setting a historic record for the tournament. Of course, the 2018 World Cup had only 64 matches in total, while this edition has already seen 86 fierce battles. Hani is particularly unfortunate, as this is his second own goal of the tournament, making him the second player in World Cup history to score two own goals in a single edition, following Bulgarian player Vutsov in 1966. In the first group match, facing Lukaku's pounce for a shot, Hani panicked and scored an own goal, not only allowing Belgium to equalize 1-1 but also ending Belgium's 325-minute goal drought in the World Cup finals. This time, Hani was trying to clear the ball with a header from a set piece but ended up sending it into his own net.
【List of Own Goals in This World Cup】
(1) Damian Bobadilla (Paraguay) Paraguay 1-4 USA: Own goal at 7th minute, score 0-1
(2) Mouheim (Switzerland) Switzerland 1-1 Qatar: Own goal at 90+4th minute, score 1-1
(3) Hani (Egypt) Egypt 1-1 Belgium: Own goal at 66th minute, score 1-1
(4) Ayman Hussein (Iraq) Iraq 1-4 Norway: Own goal at 90+6th minute, score 1-4
(5) Yazan Al-Arab (Jordan) Jordan 1-3 Austria: Own goal at 76th minute, score 1-2
(6) Mannaie (Qatar) Qatar 0-6 Canada: Own goal at 75th minute, score 0-5
(7) Burgess (Australia) Australia 0-2 USA: Own goal at 11th minute, score 0-1
(8) Tambakti (Saudi Arabia) Saudi Arabia 0-4 Spain: Own goal at 49th minute, score 0-4
(9) Nematov (Uzbekistan) Uzbekistan 0-5 Portugal: Own goal at 60th minute, score 0-4
(10) Abunada (Qatar) Qatar 1-3 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Own goal at 34th minute, score 0-2
(11) Bounou (Morocco) Morocco 4-2 Haiti: Own goal at 10th minute, score 0-1
(12) Skhiri (Tunisia) Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands: Own goal at 3rd minute, score 0-1
(13) Mohamed Hani (Egypt) Egypt vs Australia: Own goal at 55th minute, score 1-1

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U Argentina won the match—Cape Verde won the world
On July 4, 2026, Beijing time, the USA–Canada–Mexico World Cup reached its final day of the Round of 16. After extra time, Argentina edged out Cape Verde 3-2 to advance to the Round of 16.
The biggest dark-horse challenge to the defending champions—this was one of the most talked-about matchups among the 16 games in this stage. Thanks to stubborn defense, Cape Verde, making its first World Cup appearance, earned three draws in the group stage, including consecutive draws against two former World Cup champions, Spain and Uruguay. They ultimately advanced as runners-up in Group H. Argentina finished first in Group J with three straight wins, with Messi—in excellent form—scoring 6 goals in the group stage. Cape Verde’s head coach Bubísta described this clash as “the most important match in the team’s history,” saying, “We will take it with the utmost seriousness, and we also have our own dreams.” Argentina’s head coach Scaloni emphasized that Cape Verde’s progression into the knockout stage was “by no means accidental,” saying he believes the team has a tight defense and outstanding counterattacks, making them a difficult opponent.
The match unfolded just as he said—Argentina played extremely hard. In the 29th minute, Lisandro Martínez provided an assist, and Messi’s perfectly timed touch helped him break the deadlock with ease. In his 30th World Cup appearance, Messi scored his personal 20th goal, and both figures were the tournament highs. However, in the 59th minute, Ryan Mendes assisted Duarte, and Duarte’s long-range shot brought Cape Verde level. After that, Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha was outstanding, making several crucial saves to neutralize multiple dangerous moments. At the end of 90 minutes, Cape Verde earned another draw. In the 92nd minute, Lisandro Martínez fired home from a tight angle to put Argentina back ahead again. In the 102nd minute, Lopes Cabral’s curling long-range strike helped Cape Verde draw level once more.
In the second half of extra time, a corner kick taken by Messi led to an own goal by the opposition. With that goal, Argentina ultimately overcame the opponent and continued their title defense. According to the schedule, Argentina will face Egypt in the Round of 16.

On July 1, 2026, Eastern Daylight Time, according to Google Finance data, Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) closed at $61.95, down 1.09%. Just on the previous trading day (June 30), CRCL experienced a more severe single-day plunge of 17.55%, closing at $62.63. On a cross-month basis, CRCL has accumulated a decline of over 40% in the past 30 trading days. From its April high (around $104) to the end of June, the market value of this "first stablecoin stock" has evaporated by over 40%. A sharp st

On July 2, 2026, Eastern Time, Tesla released its second-quarter delivery data that excited the market — global deliveries reached 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year and 34% quarter-over-quarter, marking the company's strongest second-quarter performance in history. This figure far exceeded Wall Street analysts' consensus expectation of about 406,000 vehicles, surpassing it by over 74,000 vehicles. However, during U.S. stock trading on July 2, Tesla's stock price closed sharply down 7.49% a

On July 2, 2026, Metaplanet (stock code: 3350), a company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan, disclosed its Bitcoin holdings data for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. According to regulatory filings, the company purchased 2,823 Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $88,300 per coin in the second quarter. This acquisition, worth about $170.7 million, brought its total holdings to 43,000 BTC, with a market value of approximately $2.6 billion. As of July 3, 2026, according to Gate

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#广场预测世界杯赢40000U The USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup Round of 16 match is truly legendary! Belgium pulled off a super comeback script, with plot twists so ridiculous!
The match was full of high-energy reversals. During the water break at the 70th minute, Belgium captain Tielemans and Trossard had an on-field quarrel, and it took Lukaku and other teammates to quickly step in and separate them. The team atmosphere collapsed momentarily.
Just when we thought the team had no hope, they exploded in desperation! In the 86th minute, Lukaku first scored to pull one back, and then within 158 seconds, they scored two goals in rapid succession! Trossard, who had quarreled earlier, actively assisted Tielemans to score, somehow leveling the score at 2-2 and dragging the match into extra time.
Even more incredible was yet to come! After a fierce battle until the 120th minute, Tielemans went down in the penalty area. VAR intervened and after verification, awarded a penalty kick. At the crucial moment, he withstood the pressure and calmly scored the penalty in the 125th minute, completing a 3-2 unbelievable last-gasp winner!
The details of this match are also very interesting. Even though extra time only had 4 minutes of added time, it actually lasted until the 132nd minute before ending. It was heart-pounding throughout!
Do you think this comeback counts as the most ridiculous fairy-tale script of this World Cup so far?

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U How much do you know about the history of the World Cup?
Let's sort out the complete development history of the FIFA World Cup (1930–2026)
The World Cup was initiated by the third FIFA President Jules Rimet, held every 4 years, with the first edition in 1930; only the 1942 and 1946 editions were canceled due to World War II. It is divided into five major development stages, from a regional invitational tournament of 13 teams to the world's number one sports IP watched by billions.
I. Budding and Initial Stage (1930–1950): Birth, War Interruption, Tournament Resumption
1. 1930 Uruguay · First World Cup (Pioneering Work) Background: FIFA broke away from the Olympic restriction of "only amateur players," selected Uruguay (centennial of independence, two-time Olympic football champion) as host, and the host covered travel expenses for European teams.
Scale: 13 teams were invited, no qualifiers, 7 from South America, 4 from Europe, 2 from North America; African and Asian teams were all absent due to the long distance.
Format: 4 groups in single round-robin, group winners advanced to semifinals, winners contested the final.
Iconic Moment: On July 13, two matches kicked off simultaneously; French player Lucien Laurent scored the first goal in World Cup history; the final saw Uruguay come from behind to beat Argentina 4-2, giving birth to the first trophy, the Jules Rimet Trophy.
Significance: The World Cup was officially born, establishing the four-year tradition.
2. 1934 Italy (First Qualifiers, First European Host) Major Reform: First qualifiers introduced, saying goodbye to the invitation system; final tournament fixed at 16 teams, host also had to play qualifiers.
Era Mark: Mussolini used the tournament as political propaganda; defending champion Uruguay boycotted and refused to participate.
Result: Italy won at home, becoming the first European champion.
3. 1938 France (Only Pre-War Tournament, First Defense) Italy 2-1 Hungary defended successfully, becoming the first team to win consecutive World Cups. South American teams collectively boycotted consecutive tournaments in Europe; Argentina and Uruguay absent; the shadow of World War II loomed, tournament scale shrank.
4. 1942, 1946 Canceled World War II broke out in full, the World Cup was suspended for 12 years, the only two cancellations in history.
5. 1950 Brazil (Post-War Restart, Maracanã Tragedy) Special Format: No single final match; a final group stage of four teams decided the champion.
Tragic Iconic Moment: Nearly 200k spectators at the Maracanã Stadium witnessed the host Brazil lose 1-2 to Uruguay, losing the title, known as the "Maracanã Tragedy." The trophy was officially named the "Jules Rimet Cup" in memory of the tournament's founder.
II. Golden Growth Period (1954–1978): Stable 16-Team Era, Birth of Superstars, Television Globalization During this stage, the final tournament remained fixed at 16 teams, dual dominance by Europe and the Americas, tactical innovations, and television broadcasting began global influence.
1954 Switzerland: Miracle of Bern West Germany came from behind to beat the invincible Hungary 3-2 to win; the highest-scoring match in a single tournament (Austria 7-5 Switzerland) was born.
1958 Sweden: Emergence of Pelé 17-year-old Pelé led Brazil to its first title; France's Just Fontaine scored 13 goals in a single tournament, a record unbroken to this day; the World Cup landed in Scandinavia for the first time.
1962 Chile: Brazil defended Pelé injured in the group stage, Garrincha carried the team, Brazil successfully defended.
1966 England: Only Home Champion Host England beat West Germany 4-2 to win; Geoff Hurst scored the only hat-trick in a World Cup final; commercialization began, sponsor and broadcast rights systems took shape.
1970 Mexico (Groundbreaking Edition) Global color TV broadcast, Samba football swept the world; Brazil beat Italy 4-1 to win its third title, permanently keeping the Jules Rimet Trophy as per the rules; Pelé won three World Cups, becoming the only three-time winner in history; semifinal Italy 4-3 West Germany, an epic extra-time duel.
1974 West Germany: Total Football Revolution + Commercialization Start The Netherlands' "Total Football" tactics swept the football world; Franz Beckenbauer led West Germany to win at home; João Havelange became FIFA President, launching global commercial expansion.
1978 Argentina Kempes became a legend, host won its first title; South American and European football structures fully matured.
III. Global Expansion Period (1982–1994): Expansion to 24 Teams, Asian and African Teams Formally on Stage
1982 Spain: First expansion to 24 teams 6 groups, more Asian and African teams received spots, the World Cup truly went global; Italy's Paolo Rossi staged a redemption story and won the title.
1986 Mexico: Maradona's God-like Status Two legendary iconic moments in World Cup history: "Hand of God" + "Goal of the Century"; Argentina beat West Germany 3-2 to win, widely recognized as "one man's World Cup."
1990 Italy: Peak of Defensive Football Final West Germany 1-0 Argentina; classic tournament theme song, slow-paced iron defense became the era's hallmark.
1994 USA: Commercial Maturity, End of the Jules Rimet Trophy First World Cup in North America; commercial broadcasting, sponsorship, and merchandise industries exploded; Brazil beat Italy on penalties to win its fourth title; after the tournament, the Jules Rimet Trophy was stolen and permanently lost, decommissioned.
IV. Modern Golden Era (1998–2022): Classic 32-Team Format, FIFA World Cup Trophy, Technological Innovation The new trophy, the FIFA World Cup Trophy, was introduced; the final tournament stabilized at 32 teams (8 groups × 4 teams, top two advanced to round of 16), used for 24 years; the tournament covered Asia and Africa, with technology and globalization fully upgraded.
1998 France: First year of 32 teams Zinedine Zidane scored two headers to help France win its first title at home; the 32-team format was finalized, knockout stage system perfected.
2002 South Korea/Japan: First Asian Host, China's Only World Cup Appearance The only co-hosted World Cup; Brazil beat Germany 2-0, winning its fifth title, establishing the five-star Brazil dynasty.
2006 Germany: Italy beat France on penalties; Zidane's headbutt on Marco Materazzi became a classic iconic moment.
2010 South Africa: First African Host Spain's tiki-taka possession football triumphed; Andrés Iniesta scored the winner against the Netherlands in the final; the vuvuzela became an iconic symbol.
2018 Russia: VAR (Video Assistant Referee) officially introduced Technology ensured fairer officiating; France won again 20 years later.
2022 Qatar: Last 32-team World Cup The only World Cup held in winter; Messi led Argentina to beat France on penalties, crowning him as the king, completing the epic finale of the Messi-Ronaldo era.
V. New Era (2026 USA/Mexico/Canada): 48-Team Expansion Major Format Reform: Final tournament expanded to 48 teams, 12 groups of 4 teams each, top two from each group + 8 best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout stage. First tri-nation co-hosting (USA, Canada, Mexico), number of matches, continental coverage, and commercial scale all set new historical records.
Supplementary Core Historical Knowledge Points
1. Two Championship Trophies Jules Rimet Trophy (1930–1970): The first three-time champion could keep it permanently; Brazil kept it permanently after winning three times; it was stolen and melted down in 1983, disappearing.
FIFA World Cup Trophy (1974–present): Only temporarily awarded to the champion each edition; a replica is given after the tournament; no permanent retention rule.
2. Overall Evolution of Format
1930: 13 teams → 1934–1978: 16 teams → 1982–1994: 24 teams → 1998–2022: 32 teams → 2026 onward: 48 teams

#加密市场行情走势
📊 Don’t panic! Take the attitude of watching the World Cup to quickly grasp the big direction of what’s next for the crypto market!
💥 Can’t understand the market? It’s because you haven’t sorted out the “main lineup” behind it!
Many newcomers keep asking everywhere: “Boss, lately the U.S. stock market is making new highs one moment, the World Cup is blazing hot the next, and then Europe rolls out new regulatory rules—so will BTC (Bitcoin) and ETH (Ether) go up or down? I’m dizzy just trying to watch the charts!”
Don’t worry. Actually, today’s crypto market is just like the fierce 2026 North America World Cup in full battle mode—there are multiple forces on the field, constantly testing each other. Today, we’ll use plain, easy words to break down those seemingly unrelated “headline drivers” like the Fed, the U.S. stock market, and the World Cup, so you can see the next market direction at a glance!
⚽ The “three main teams” that will determine the next market move
We can break down the macro factors currently affecting the crypto market into three “teams” that are playing on the field right now:
1️⃣ Team One: U.S. stocks and the Fed (Codename: the Golden Engine)
On-field performance: Recently, the Dow Jones Index has historically broken through the 52,000 level, and the U.S. stock market is roaring like a bull market. Meanwhile, on the Fed side, at its June meeting it announced that it will continue to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%.
Newcomer insight: New highs in U.S. stocks show that the wealthy “risk appetite” in the market is very strong—people are still willing to put money into investments. The Fed’s choice of “no rate hikes and no rate cuts” may sound like it’s worrying about inflation, but as long as it doesn’t aggressively hike, it effectively serves as a reassuring signal to the market. Conclusion: The base for big money is solid—money hasn’t pulled out!
2️⃣ Team Two: The 2026 North America World Cup (Codename: a cash-absorbing black hole)
On-field performance: The World Cup is now entering the most exciting knockout stage, and the eyes and money of billions of people around the world have been drawn to football.
Newcomer insight: Whenever there’s a global celebration like the World Cup, many retail traders and short-term funds in the crypto space get distracted by buying match-related things and watching games, which causes the crypto market’s short-term trading volume to “dehydrate” (meaning fewer people are buying and selling). That’s why the market has recently felt a bit sticky—choppy sideways. Conclusion: As long as the World Cup isn’t over, it’s hard for the market to produce an all-at-once, explosive unilateral trend.
3️⃣ Team Three: EU MiCA regulation officially takes effect (Codename: regular forces entering)
On-field performance: On July 1, the EU’s “Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets” will formally take full effect, forcing a large number of non-compliant small platforms in Europe to shut down.
Newcomer insight: In the short term, this looks like a “bearish” factor, because some non-compliant platforms are exiting, which can lead to some capital confusion. But in the long run, this is an epic bullish development! It’s like standardizing a wet market—driving away unscrupulous vendors and letting truly compliant big platforms take over. The real super-rich in the traditional world (institutional capital) only dare to pour in hundreds of billions after the rules are clearly defined.
📈 So how will the market move in the coming period?
By combining these three forces, we can run a clear “battlefield simulation” of the upcoming trend:
📍 Phase One: Short term (before mid-July)
Trend forecast: Garbage time—painful, boring consolidation.
Core drivers: The World Cup absorbing capital + a major compliance reshuffle in Europe, which leads to a heavy wait-and-see sentiment among funds on the inside.
Retail response strategy: Don’t mess around! Keep a tight grip and don’t open positions frequently with high leverage—watch more, move less.
📍 Phase Two: Medium term (late July to August)
Trend forecast: The World Cup whistle blows—dragons crossing the river.
Core drivers: After the World Cup ends, capital flows back + profit-taking from stocks in the U.S. spilling over + compliance positives ripening.
Retail response strategy: Take advantage of the current consolidation period—buy BTC and ETH in batches on dips, and also allocate to some high-intensity AI / structural blue chips.
One-sentence summary: Right now is the last “garbage time” before dawn. The big trend of oscillating upward hasn’t changed—short-term sideways is just to shake out impatient speculators.
🚀 The main forces are laying cards on the table in plain view; the U.S. stock market is leading the way up front. The World Cup will eventually end, and the door to compliance has been fully opened.
If you’re a newcomer, this current sideways pullback isn’t something to make you panic and cut your losses—it’s a golden window from heaven for you to “build positions in batches and pick up bargains”!

📢 Gate Square Daily | July 1
1️⃣ Industry News: Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase and other financial institutions are preparing to launch the stablecoin OUSD, building an on-chain dollar infrastructure for institutional payments and settlements.
2️⃣ Regulatory News: The U.S. SEC has launched an evaluation of new ETF regulatory rules and is seeking public comments, focusing on crypto ETFs and prediction market-related products.
3️⃣ Market News: BTC is at $58,530, down 2.9% in 24 hours; ETH is at $1,569, down 2.8% in 24 hours.
4️⃣ Institutional Moves: Trump disclosed holding over $100 million in BTC and ETH; U.S. Vice President JD Vance disclosed holding between $250k and $500k in Bitcoin.
5️⃣ On-chain News: a16z continues to reduce its holdings of HYPE, transferring approximately $10.19 million in tokens to trading platforms in the past two days.

‍#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
Little Wealth God World Cup Morning News: Mbappé scores twice, Haaland delivers the decisive goal as France and Norway advance to the Round of 16
Round of 16: Côte d’Ivoire 1-2 Norway
With goals from Nusa and Haaland, Norway returned to the Round of 16 for the first time in 28 years, matching the best performance in the team’s history. Facing the fast and offensively strong “Elephant Legion,” Nusa gave Norway the lead in the 39th minute with a curling “moon-blade” strike. In the 74th minute, substitute Diallo for Côte d’Ivoire equalized. In the 86th minute, Haaland, on receiving a cross from a teammate, pushed it in with a “winning” finish to seal the result. At this World Cup, Haaland has already scored five goals. In the Round of 16, Norway will face Brazil.
June 30: Côte d’Ivoire player Amad Diallo (third from the left) celebrates a goal with teammates during the match. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Jia Haocheng.
June 30: Norway player Erling Haaland (first from the left) takes a shot during the match. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wu Xiaoling.
Round of 16: France 3-0 Sweden
Mbappé scored two goals. With 10 goals, he became the player with the most total goals in World Cup knockout-stage history. His total World Cup goals reached 18, ranking second in history. His goals at this World Cup rose to 6, tying Messi and placing him joint-first on the top scorers list. Olise provided two assists, leading this World Cup’s assists chart with 5 assists. In the Round of 16, France will take on Paraguay, who eliminated Germany in a penalty shootout.
Beijing time: July 1, 9:00
Round of 16: Mexico-Ecuador
This “Americas Derby” is highly anticipated. In the group stage, Mexico won all three matches and conceded not a single goal. Along with France and Argentina, they became the only three teams to collect full marks of 9 points, with a solid back line and a well-balanced attack and defense. Meanwhile, Ecuador—the “Devil of the Highlands”—pulled off a comeback to narrowly knock out the “German War Machine,” earning themselves a reputation as a “dark horse.”
This will be the teams’ second meeting in World Cup history. In the 2002 Korea/Japan World Cup group stage, Mexico won 2:1. This time, the hosts are eager to keep the glory going, while Ecuador, skilled at high-altitude battles, is determined to seek “revenge.”

#原油行情 On July 1, 2026, [Today's Crude Oil] Real-time in-depth analysis report.
🛢️ Crude Oil Market Snapshot
Updated to July 1, 2026. The geopolitical premium in the Middle East that previously supported oil prices has completely faded, and the crude oil market has entered a weak consolidation phase after a sharp decline. The market’s focus has fully shifted to expectations of loose supply, with short-term bearish forces not yet fully released. Only low inventories provide limited support, and oil prices remain under continuous downward pressure. The following is a complete analysis from five dimensions: market quotes, supply-demand dynamics, trend forecasts, core indicators, and industry developments.
I. Core Closing Data for the Day
International crude oil continued its sharp decline, with both domestic and foreign markets weakening simultaneously, as a large amount of long capital exited the market.
International market: WTI crude oil August contract quoted at $69.50/barrel, down 1.77% on the day, with a cumulative weekly decline of 9.62%, breaking below the $70 mark for the first time; Brent crude oil August contract at $72.92/barrel, with a weekly decline close to 10%, showing significant signs of long capital flight.
Domestic market: Shanghai crude oil SC main contract at 464.1 yuan/barrel, down 1.17% intraday, with the domestic-foreign price differential continuing to narrow. The procurement price range for local refineries is 460-468 yuan/barrel, wholesale prices for refined products continue to weaken, spot transactions are sluggish, and traders are highly cautious, with almost no bulk stockpiling operations.
II. Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Supply side
OPEC+ officially implemented a daily production increase plan of 188k barrels starting July 1, marking the fourth consecutive month of easing output cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia each increased production by 62k barrels/day; the volume of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to 60% of pre-conflict levels, and the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East has essentially been eliminated. U.S. crude oil production rose to 13.93 million barrels/day, a new all-time high, with continuous increases in shale oil supply further reinforcing the global loose supply scenario.
Demand side
Multiple investment banks have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth. The economic recovery in Europe and the U.S. has fallen short of expectations, and refinery operating rates have declined. Only the seasonal summer gasoline demand in the U.S. provides slight support, which is insufficient to reverse the overall weak demand environment. Domestic refining and chemical enterprises produce based on demand, maintaining only essential raw material procurement with no large-scale inventory replenishment plans.
III. Technical Level Analysis
The short-term effects of production increases, loose supply, and macroeconomic demand concerns are converging as three bearish factors, maintaining downward pressure on oil prices. Key price levels to watch: WTI crude oil has key support at $68/barrel and resistance at $73/barrel; Brent crude oil support at $71/barrel and resistance at $76/barrel; domestic SC crude oil core support at 450 yuan/barrel and resistance at 480 yuan/barrel. In the medium to long term, global crude oil inventories remain in a relatively low range, which can limit the extent of a sharp decline. In the short term, a one-sided crash is unlikely, and the market may enter a prolonged period of low-range consolidation and bottom-building.
IV. Key Reference Data for Investors
• OPEC+ July additional capacity: daily increase of 188k barrels, with Saudi Arabia and Russia each increasing by 62k barrels/day;
• U.S. crude oil production: 13.93 million barrels/day, a new all-time high;
• Domestic refined product price adjustment window: opens at 24:00 on July 3, with an expected reduction of 810-860 yuan/ton, the largest single reduction of the year;
• Three-region crude oil change rate: -14.57%, with the negative value continuing to widen;
• Strait of Hormuz traffic volume: recovered to 60% of pre-conflict levels, with the risk of Middle East crude oil supply essentially cleared.
V. Latest Market Developments
Multiple leading investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have collectively lowered their full-year oil price forecasts, with institutions turning cautious overall and long positions significantly reduced. Expectations for a delayed Fed rate cut are rising, the U.S. dollar remains strong, continuing to pressure commodity valuations. Downstream transportation and chemical industries have slowed procurement, waiting for prices to stabilize, with market trading activity subdued. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on July 5, and the market generally fears that producing countries will continue the pace of production increases, further compressing the potential for an oil price rebound.
VI. Summary and Outlook
Overall, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has fully dissipated, with loose supply becoming the dominant theme. In the short term, oil prices still face downside risks. Low inventories can only slow the pace of decline but cannot provide strong support for a rebound. Operationally, refining and trading enterprises are advised to maintain low inventory levels and avoid blind bottom-fishing; downstream oil-consuming enterprises should postpone large-scale stockpiling and plan procurement after the OPEC+ meeting on July 5. Going forward, key focus should be on the OPEC+ meeting decision, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories, and global macroeconomic data to reasonably manage procurement pacing and hedge against raw material price volatility.$XTIUSD

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U Why are there more and more upsets in the World Cup? Math has long told you...
There's a line in *Goal! The Dream Begins*: In the world of football, the impossible happens every day.
You might think this is inspirational. But it's actually math.
First, let's talk about a number that stunned everyone.
At the 2018 World Cup, Germany lost 0-2 to South Korea in the group stage and finished last in their group. The world was shocked. But at the time, the odds from BC company were 1:17. Converted to probability: South Korea winning had only a 5.6% chance.
Theoretically, such an event happens once every 18 matches. But there were only 48 group-stage matches in that World Cup—and it just happened to occur.
Some say: luck. Some say: complacency. Mathematicians say: This isn't an accident; it's the Poisson distribution.
Second, what is the Poisson distribution? In simple terms.
A football match lasts 90 minutes, with few goals scored. The average number of goals per match is around 2 to 3. This kind of "rare random event within a unit of time" can be precisely modeled using the Poisson distribution.
The formula looks scary, but the principle is simple:
If a team averages 2 goals per match (λ=2), then:
Probability of scoring 0 goals: 13.5%
Probability of scoring 1 goal: 27.1%
Probability of scoring 2 goals: 27.1%
Probability of scoring 3 goals: 18.0%
Probability of scoring 4 or more: about 14.3%
A weak team scoring 3 goals in an upset? Mathematically, it's possible, just with low probability. Low probability does not mean it won't happen.
Third, why will there be more upsets in 2026?
2018 World Cup: 32 teams, 48 group-stage matches. 2026 World Cup: 48 teams, 72 group-stage matches. That's a full **50%** increase in matches. Every additional match is another "launch opportunity" for a low-probability event.
We did a rough estimate: Assume that in each match, the probability of a major upset (strong team being beaten) is about 5%.
With 48 matches: Expected about 2.4 major upsets.
With 72 matches: Expected about 3.6 major upsets.
That's a full 50% increase.
In other words: You're not just seeing more upsets—there are simply more upsets. This isn't a feeling; it's math speaking.
Fourth, so is AI prediction useful? That's the core question.
Since football is so random, what's the point of predictions? The answer is: partially useful, but you need to understand the boundaries of "usefulness."
Fifth, backtesting data speaks.
We conducted offline validation on 192 matches from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups. The conclusion is clear:
In group stages, where strength differences are obvious, the model has reference value.
In knockout stages, where it's one match to decide, randomness surges, and the model significantly weakens.
High-confidence matches are the most worth referencing—but each World Cup has only about 20 such matches.
The essence of upsets is the normal occurrence of low-probability events.
It's not a bug, not match-fixing, not luck. It's the Poisson distribution saying: You planned for every possibility, but football keeps that 5% just to make the world remember it.
Sixth, for 2026, which matches should you pay most attention to?
Our suggestion:
Third round of group stage: With tight standings, some strong teams already qualified, reduced motivation for starters, high upset probability.
Asia/Africa vs. Europe: Biggest ELO gap, but the Poisson distribution tells you: the larger the gap, the stronger the "shock value" when an upset occasionally happens.
Matches with confidence ≥ 60%: System-specific marking, historically the most worth paying attention to.

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‍#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
Haaland's 86th-minute winner sets 5 major records, Norway returns to Round of 16 after 28 years
On July 1, in a stunning Round of 16 match at the 2026 World Cup, Norway defeated Ivory Coast 2-1, returning to the Round of 16 after 28 years. Haaland, valued at €200 million, scored a last-minute winner with a tap-in at the 86th minute, and the tough guy instantly broke down in tears. Wearing a Viking helmet, he looked at the stands and wiped away tears, a touching scene. After the match, a choked-up Haaland said: "I really didn't have the energy to play extra time! This journey has been insane. I believe this will change Norway forever." After this goal, he has scored 5 goals in 3 World Cup matches, matching Norway's total team goals for the entire 1998 tournament, and set a record as the first player in 72 years to score in each of the first three World Cup matches. Norway is playing in the World Cup for the fourth time in its history, now matching its best results from 1938 and 1998. The Viking pirates have officially announced their return.
Haaland's performance in this match was not particularly outstanding, but true top strikers always step up in crucial moments. In the 86th minute, Berg laid the ball back from the byline, and Haaland easily tapped it home, securing the last-minute winner to advance. Statistics show that Haaland has scored 60 goals in 53 international matches, becoming the fastest player to reach 60 goals for a senior national team since Gerd Müller (48 matches) in 1973. He also became the third player in history to score in the first three World Cup matches, and has scored a terrifying 25 goals in his last 13 matches for Norway. Even more astonishingly, during the World Cup qualifiers, he scored 16 goals in 8 matches, averaging 2 goals per game, crushing Italy in both legs, and tying Robert Lewandowski's record for most goals in a single European qualifying campaign, with efficiency far surpassing Messi and Ronaldo.
Norway's comeback cannot be separated from Haaland's dominant performance in the qualifiers. He scored in all 8 qualifiers, netting five goals in a single match against Moldova (single-handedly creating 7 goals), and scored a brace in two minutes away against Italy, personally forcing the four-time champion into the playoffs. Standing 200M tall with strong physicality, he forms a 'three-striker' setup with Sørloth and Larsen, praised as 'the strongest forward line in the World Cup'. Tactically, he draws multiple defenders, creating space for teammates like Ødegaard (who leads Europe with 7 assists). Norway won all 8 qualifiers, scoring 37 goals and conceding only 5, averaging 4.6 goals per game, surpassing Germany's 2017 undefeated campaign (4.3 goals per game), setting a new historical efficiency benchmark for European qualifiers. Now returning to the Round of 16 after 28 years, Haaland has proven with his strength that he is not just a stat-padder against weak teams, but a true god reshaping the landscape of Nordic football.
After advancing to the Round of 16, Norway will face Brazil on July 6 at 04:00, and Haaland will reunite with Arsenal center-back Gabriel. The two have had frequent clashes in the Premier League representing Manchester City and Arsenal respectively. This reunion on the World Cup stage, who will have the last laugh is worth anticipating. Brazil is a strong favorite to win the title, but Norway possesses the unstoppable blade of Haaland—he has 5 goals in the first 3 World Cup matches, in scorching form. Norway's coach may use Haaland's hold-up play combined with Ødegaard's precise passing to tear open Brazil's defense on the counterattack. Whether Gabriel can contain this Premier League rival will be key to the match. Can the Viking pirates continue to create miracles? The whole world is holding its breath.

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U July 1, Three Tough Battles
The World Cup knockout stage is heating up. On July 1, three matchups, each a do-or-die battle.
Beijing time on July 1, this day is arguably the most intensive day of the World Cup knockout stage. Three matches, from early morning to late morning, non-stop all day.
Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway, France vs Sweden, Mexico vs Ecuador. Each match could be the biggest upset breeding ground of this World Cup.
The World Cup knockout stage never plays by the rules—paper strength, world rankings, once on this stage, they all reset to zero.
Match 1: 01:00 Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway
African Eagles vs Nordic Giants: A clash of speed and power
At 1 AM, Côte d'Ivoire kicks off first. This African team's performance at this World Cup can be described as "stunning." Their physicality and speed are no less than European teams, and African teams traditionally have a knack for overperforming in the knockout stage.
Norway, on the other hand, is a team full of contradictions. They have a world-class striker, but their overall tactical system is not yet mature enough. Facing a highly impactful opponent like Côte d'Ivoire, Norway's defense will face a huge test.
Favoring Côte d'Ivoire. The resilience of African teams will be magnified in the knockout stage, and if Norway cannot take an early lead, they will easily be dragged into a quagmire later.
Prediction: Côte d'Ivoire 2-1 Norway
Match 2: 05:00 France vs Sweden
France vs Sweden: A clash of European traditional powerhouses
At 5 AM, the main event arrives—France takes on Sweden. This is the most watched match of the three.
France, as the top favorite to win this World Cup, has a dominant lead in squad depth and star quality. Their attack line has the fastest wingers and most lethal strikers in the world, and their midfield control is also top-notch.
Sweden is no pushover either. Nordic teams are known for their tough style and tactical discipline. They are well-organized defensively and efficient in counterattacks. But the question is, facing an all-round dominant opponent like France, how long can Sweden hold on?
Historical matchup records show that France has never faltered in crucial matches. From 2018 to 2022, they have proven themselves to be a true championship-level team on the World Cup stage.
"When talent meets discipline, talent often has the last laugh."
Prediction: France 3-1 Sweden
Match 3: 09:00 Mexico vs Ecuador
Host Mexico takes on the Highland Demon Ecuador
At 9 AM, the last match—Mexico vs Ecuador. This one is interesting.
Mexico, as one of the hosts, enjoys home-field advantage. Fan support, familiar pitch, no fatigue from long-distance travel—these are all solid pluses.
But Ecuador is no pushover. This team is called the "Highland Demon"—they come from Quito, nearly 3,000 meters above sea level. Players there are long accustomed to thin air. On flat terrain, their physical advantage becomes a weapon—opponents get winded after running a few steps, while they can still sprint all over the pitch.
The two teams are evenly matched, so this is likely to be a tight war of attrition. Mexico will narrowly win thanks to home momentum, but the process will definitely not be easy.
"Home advantage is real, but the Highland Demon's resilience is even more terrifying."
Prediction: Mexico 2-1 Ecuador