Recently, I’ve been looking at some yield aggregator APYs again, the numbers look pretty good, but to be honest, APY isn’t “profit,” it’s the expected total return after you give your money to a series of contracts plus counterparties. Inside the contract, it’s layered: first converting your deposited assets into LP tokens, then borrowing/market making/staking, any small issue along the way (permissions, oracles, liquidations, re-staking chain breaks), and in the end, it’s all on you to bear.

These days, new L1/L2 incentives start pulling TVL right away, and I understand the old users’ complaints of “mining, dumping, selling”… When yields are high, a lot of it is actually subsidized burning; when subsidies stop, what’s left is whether the structure itself can withstand it.

The information environment is too noisy. My way of reducing noise is simple: every time I see a high APY, I first check the contract permissions and fund flow. If I can’t figure out where the money is going or who can move it, I just pretend I didn’t see it. That’s how I handle it for now.