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Federal Reserve Study: AI Cuts the Growth Rate of U.S. Programmers in Half, With About 500,000 Fewer Jobs Over Three Years
AIMPACT News, April 25 (UTC+8), Federal Reserve Board research shows that after the release of ChatGPT, the growth of programming-related jobs in the United States has significantly slowed down.
Before November 2022, the annual growth rate of programming jobs was close to 5%, but the growth rate sharply declined afterward.
Adjusted for industry size, the number of employed programmers still decreases by about 3 percentage points annually, resulting in a cumulative gap of approximately 500k jobs over three years.
Programmers account for about 3.7% of the U.S. workforce, with roughly 40% working for IT service providers, where the slowdown is most evident.
The study found no significant decline in wages; the main impact is on employment numbers.
The gap emerged in mid-2024, about 1.5 years after the release of ChatGPT.
The research indicates that over 98% of measurement methods list programmers as the profession most affected by AI.
Research from Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University found that AI agents are almost entirely focused on programming tasks.