Macron is back: Cannot become a vassal of China and the U.S.

Can AI question—How does Macron’s low approval rating drive his Asia diplomacy strategy?

【Text / Observer Network Wang Yi】 Faced with domestic approval ratings that have hit a record low, French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to win back momentum on the international diplomatic stage. In recent days, Macron has made back-to-back visits to Japan and South Korea, delivering frequent speeches and giving interviews as he peddles his familiar talking point that “middle powers cannot become vassals of China and the United States.”

According to a report by U.S. Bloomberg on April 3, during this week’s visit to Asia, Macron sought to bring together so-called “middle powers” to keep each other afloat and jointly counter the influence of the United States and China—aiming to build a new international order that neither relies on the United States nor depends on China.

“Our goal is not to become vassals of two hegemonic powers.” On the 3rd in South Korea at Yonsei University, Macron said, “We don’t want to rely on China’s dominant position, and we don’t want to be overly exposed to the uncertainty of U.S. policies.”

He noted that France and South Korea share common agendas on issues such as international law, democracy, climate change, and global public health. By adding other European countries along with Canada, Japan, India, Brazil, and Australia, they could form a cooperative system of “countries that have the capability and the willingness”—the so-called “independent alliance,” “so that a third path begins to take shape.”

Macron proposed that this alliance could work together to cooperate in areas including artificial intelligence (AI), space, energy (including nuclear energy), defense and security—“in any area, whatever it may be.”

At 4:00 p.m. local time on April 3, French President Macron delivered a speech at the Franco-Korean Business Forum. IC Photo

This is not the first time he has made statements like this. As the EU’s only nuclear-armed country and a member state with the strongest defense capabilities, Macron has long advocated that Europe should play a “balancing” role between the United States and China. As early as during his 2023 visit to China, he argued that the EU should not become a “vassal” of the United States, which angered the United States and its Asian and European allies, and he also warned Europe not to get dragged into a conflict across the Taiwan Strait.

This month’s 1st, in an interview with the Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) television station, Macron also claimed that France does not intend to accept “the hegemony of either the United States or China,” and he hopes to cooperate with countries such as Japan and Canada and India to reduce reliance on major powers. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made a positive response to Macron’s remarks, saying it is “crucial to strengthen cooperation with France, an ‘Indo-Pacific country,’ as the international situation worsens.”

In recent years, Macron has continued the “independent and self-reliant” diplomatic line established by former French President Charles de Gaulle, repeatedly trying to find a so-called “third way” and opposing the world order shifting toward confrontation and division. Bloomberg believes that as the United States’ behavior within international mechanisms increasingly triggers controversy, this traditional position is gaining renewed attention. Macron is expected to further push related claims at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in June, hosted by France.

In addition, Macron reportedly intends to invite the Chinese side to attend the June G7 summit, which has made Japan uneasy. As early as last December, Japanese media cited officials from the Japanese government saying Japan had asked Macron to “carefully consider” inviting China to participate in this G7 summit.

French newspaper Le Figaro on April 1 also published an article interpreting that France is seeking to establish strategic footholds in Japan and South Korea, looking for a middle path between China and the United States. However, how to balance France’s stance toward Japan remains a key issue that Macron cannot avoid. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has provided an opportunity to bring France and Japan closer, but Japan still worries that France may invite China to the G7 summit, while Macron hopes to avoid making China feel that it is completely turning toward Japan.

At the same time, Macron is also facing criticism from U.S. President Trump. Trump is extremely dissatisfied that NATO and other U.S. allies have not provided enough help during the Iran war. With regard to France’s decision to not allow U.S. military aircraft to fly over its airspace, he posted on social media criticizing France as “not very helpful,” and warned that “the U.S. will remember.”

In response, Macron has repeatedly said that France was neither consulted nor participated in the relevant military actions. France 24 reported on January 1 that during his visit to Japan, Macron subtly took aim at Trump, criticizing some countries for “making decisions that could harm allies without prior notice,” and boasting that Europe has “predictability,” which “has value” in the current era.

On the 3rd in South Korea, Macron also directly named it, saying, “The United States is a great country,” but that its current policies may open “Pandora’s box.”

When talking about the Iran issue, Macron emphasized, “I don’t believe that bombing or military action alone can solve the problem,” and cited examples of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan to say, “We have never truly brought solutions.” He advocates establishing a “conflict de-escalation mechanism” with Iran, and proposes providing escort for transit through the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict ends.

According to a report by the French website of Le Monde, during Macron’s first visit to South Korea since taking office in 2017, he told South Korean President Lee Jae-myung that the two countries can play a role in helping stabilize the Middle East situation, including the Strait of Hormuz. On the 3rd, Lee agreed to cooperate with France to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease global economic uncertainty triggered by Middle Eastern wars. However, the two leaders did not accept questioning, nor did they explain in detail how they would help reopen the strait.

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