This round of geopolitical turmoil has really stirred up the markets. Wednesday’s price action was practically textbook for a market reversal—early in the day, people were wildly happy about the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, only for afternoon to be harshly slapped back to reality.

It’s actually quite surreal. After both sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the market instantly relaxed: the VIX fell 18% on the spot, and crude oil also dropped sharply by more than 12%. But this optimistic mood didn’t last 24 hours. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, completely overturning the expectations from earlier. Iranian parliament speaker Kalibaf directly accused the United States of violating three key clauses on the first day of the ceasefire, and said that negotiations are basically meaningless in this situation.

The core contradiction is right here—the US put forward a “15-point plan,” while Iran initially proposed a “10-point framework.” White House spokesperson Leavitt said plainly that Iran’s initial 10-point proposal was simply unacceptable and has been abandoned. The US’s bottom line is clear: it must limit the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles and completely stop uranium enrichment activities. Trump was even more blunt, threatening that any country that provides weapons to Iran would immediately face a 50% tariff on its goods sold to the US.

What’s interesting is that this uncertainty actually boosted the stock market. On Wednesday, both US and European stocks surged across the board: the Dow rose 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq increased 2.8%. Europe was even stronger, with Germany’s DAX 30 up 5.06% and France’s CAC 40 up 4.49%. Chip stocks were especially strong— the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.34%, Intel jumped 11.42%, and Teradyne rose 11.8%.

As for the bond market, the chart for the US 10-year government bond yield shows a yield of about 4.29%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day. This reflects the market’s repricing of rate-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes revealed that most members believe that if oil price shocks hit employment and consumption, the Iran situation may force them to adopt a more accommodative policy. Swap market expectations also changed: the probability of a rate cut by year-end jumped from near zero at the start of this week to 60%.

Cryptocurrencies were also moving along with the volatility. Bitcoin is currently at $77.73K, down 0.40% over the past 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2.32K, up 0.10% over the past 24 hours. Compared with the original figures of $71,098 and $2,189, this rebound is still pretty clear.

My feeling is that the market is betting on a story—if the geopolitical situation doesn’t completely spiral out of control, rate-cut expectations will come back to the forefront. That would be positive for stocks, bonds, and even crypto assets. But the risk is also very clear: once talks break down again or tensions escalate, US Treasury yields will rise again, breaking the whole logic chain. Right now, it’s about finding opportunities amid this kind of wavering expectation.