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On Polymarket, the probability of the US and Iran holding a diplomatic meeting before April 30 is currently 52%, up 6% in the short term.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket data indicates a 52% probability of a diplomatic meeting between the U.S. and Iran before April 30, currently up 6% in the short term.
According to New Delhi Television, sources say Iran and the U.S. will hold their second round of negotiations on April 27.
Based on market rules, if U.S. and Iranian representatives hold an official diplomatic meeting before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on April 30, the market will be deemed “Yes.” An official diplomatic meeting is defined as a formal gathering attended and authorized by representatives of both sides in an official capacity, including face-to-face meetings conducted through mediators, but excluding brief greetings or encounters for non-diplomatic purposes. The meeting must be face-to-face and recognized by the government or credible media reports.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.