Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike plan seems to be delayed again.

Last week's market sentiment changed very quickly. Before April 17th, everyone was still expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in April, but in just a few days, the market's expectation of a rate hike in April dropped from 50% to less than 20%. The logic behind this isn't complicated—deteriorating Middle East tensions have caused oil prices to soar, which in the short term will boost inflation data but also drag down economic growth, putting the central bank in a very passive position. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo also mentioned this recently; rising crude oil prices have worsened Japan's trade conditions and exerted a clear downward pressure on the economy.

According to the latest Reuters survey, economists now lean more toward a rate hike in June. 38% still favor April, but 35% have shifted to June, with both time points roughly tied. Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Junki Iwahashi, directly said that the likelihood of a rate hike in April is low, and June is the most probable window. The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its rate decision on April 28th, and we should be able to see the outcome then.

This will have a significant impact on the yen exchange rate. If the central bank really holds steady in April, the yen will continue to weaken. USD/JPY is already approaching the 160 level, and some analysts believe that if this trend continues, it could rise to 165. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama recently discussed this with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and she indicated that Japan is prepared to take bold actions to support the yen. But the problem is, even if the Japanese government intervenes, as long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, the appeal of carry trades remains, and the dollar's support won't disappear.

So, the current situation is that the yen faces multiple pressures. Slow rate hikes by the central bank, high U.S. interest rates, rising energy prices—all these factors are pushing USD/JPY higher. Government intervention might happen, but how effective it can be remains to be seen. Recently, I’ve also been watching yen-related trading pairs on Gate.io; the exchange rate volatility has indeed created many opportunities for traders.