Just caught something interesting on the prediction markets. Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement sent the April 7 contract absolutely flying—jumped 42 points in one move, from 34% all the way to 76%. That's massive volatility for a single news event. The April 7 market is now sitting at 70.5% YES, which is wild considering it was only at 8% just a week ago. The broader Iranian geopolitical situation seems to be pricing in some real optimism here. What's even more telling is how the term structure is shaping up. April 15 climbed to 80% YES and April 30 is at 86.5%, suggesting traders think this ceasefire might actually stick around longer than the announced two weeks. If this plays out, reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be huge for global oil transit. At 70.5 cents per share, you're looking at 1.42x returns if it confirms by April 7—decent odds if you believe in the diplomatic momentum. The volume is solid too, 3.68 million USDC in 24-hour trades, so liquidity isn't a problem. Order book depth tells an interesting story though. April 15 only needs $318 to move 5 points, but April 7 requires $52,408. That's a massive difference—suggests traders are way more confident betting further out. Classic sign of conviction in the longer-term peace scenario. Thing is, this is still tier-3 source territory. Watch for confirmation signals from CENTCOM, any moves from Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, and whether the rhetoric actually softens from both sides. Until we see higher-tier confirmation, treat this as a strong signal but not a lock.