Jim Cramer's main takeaway from the market this week — and what to watch ahead

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Food stocks have been horrendous lately, says Jim Cramer

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CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday offered his usual game plan for the coming week on Wall Street, but he acknowledged the difficulties of peering into the future with a war unfolding in the Middle East that is disrupting oil supplies.

“We obviously don’t know how long the war will last, though, and oil has a mind of its own. As long as it stays elevated, any other asset class could be standing on quicksand,” he said. “When oil goes up, stocks go down. Period. End of story.”

Cramer’s comments came after a volatile week on Wall Street ended with additional losses for the major U.S. averages. For the week, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3%. The S&P 500 dropped 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2%.

The pressure on stocks coincided with a historic spike in oil, a crucial cog in the global economy. This week, U.S. oil benchmark WTI crude saw gains of 35.6%, its largest weekly advance since the oil contract began trading in 1983. WTI ended the week above $90 a barrel, up from the mid-$60s as recently as late February.

Cramer said he wouldn’t be surprised if oil prices climbed even further, despite the Trump administration’s creation of a $20 billion reinsurance program for oil tankers. Cramer said shipping companies may still refuse to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for Persian Gulf oil exports, which would result in continued supply disruptions. With that in mind, investors will likely continue searching for stocks that can hold up in a world of higher oil prices.

“We can still make judgments about individual companies,” Cramer said. “To me, what’s amazing is that oil did skyrocket 35% in one week … and yet, the market didn’t crater. Maybe that, and not the oil premium, is the real takeaway.”

Monday

One of the first places to start is Casey’s General Stores, which reports quarterly results Monday after the close. The convenience store’s breakfast pizza is a fan favorite, but they also sell gas. With gas prices on the rise in the U.S., “someone may want to spin that as negative,” Cramer said. “But I think the crowd will love it when it reports. … It’s the best chain of stores that nobody on Wall Street has ever heard of.”

Tuesday

Before the opening bell, Kohl’s is set to post its earnings. “This earnings season has been kind to almost all the retailers,” Cramer said. While he said Kohl’s may receive similar treatment, he prefers other, higher-quality retail stocks at this point in the company’s turnaround under a new CEO. For example, Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio used by the CNBC Investing Club, has owned TJX Companies for years.

Oracle is the name to watch after Tuesday’s close. “It’s no exaggeration to say that Oracle’s the most important company reporting next week,” Cramer said.

The stock has become a pain point for investors since the fall, Cramer noted. Oracle shares surged to an all-time closing high of roughly $328 a share in September after the company reported a massive increase in its cloud-computing backlog, primarily from OpenAI. But with Oracle taking on significant debt to fund its data center buildout, investors grew worried, and the stock has been cut in more than half since then. “We need to hear that the data center buildout’s going well and the company’s starting to make money or maybe soon,” Cramer said.

Also on Tuesday night, drone maker AeroVironment is set to report, and Cramer said the market will be seeking clarity on recent controversy around one of its Pentagon contracts.

Wednesday

The consumer price index for February is out Wednesday morning, a release now complicated by the spike in oil prices that clouds the inflation outlook going forward, Cramer noted. “It’s vital that inflation at least give the appearance that it could go down, or else the Federal Reserve will struggle to justify more rate cuts because of what’s happening with oil,” Cramer said.

Thursday

Retailers Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty all report. Retailers who reported good numbers this week saw their stocks rewarded. “For the same reason, I think you can buy both Dollar General and Ulta Beauty, unless oil makes a quick run to $120. These fit the description of what’s working are bargain offerings, real bargains. They have them,” Cramer said.

Friday

Cramer said the personal consumption expenditures price index is the most important economic release of the week. This data set is the Fed’s preferred method of measuring inflation. And while the oil market makes it difficult to predict the future path of inflation, Cramer said he thinks this PCE report will be in favor of the bulls.

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Jim Cramer looks at next week’s market game plan

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