Park Byung-chang, CEO of MP Partners, rejected semiconductor bubble theories on July 27 in a video posted on YouTube channel 'Sampro TV', citing physical constraints including power, land, and DRAM shortages that make supply excess difficult to determine. Park attributed semiconductor stock declines primarily to supply-demand pressures and leverage liquidation rather than deteriorating industry fundamentals. The analysis comes amid ongoing semiconductor bubble concerns and market volatility, with this week's stock market performance—specifically whether stocks hold support levels and break the 7000 line—identified as critical for confirming market bottoms.
Individual Investor Credit Balance Decreased 5 Trillion Won in July
Park identified the reduction in individual investor credit balance as a market rebound factor. He stated that individual investor credit balance decreased by approximately 5 trillion won during July, explaining that deleveraging continues. Park said, "Individual investors' credit balance is decreasing tremendously," adding, "Deleveraging is progressing, and this trend seems to greatly influence the market."
Regarding semiconductor stock declines, Park determined that supply-demand pressures are acting more strongly than industry conditions. Park stated, "This time, supply-demand factors are quite strong," pointing out, "Even though semiconductor analysts and CEOs all say supply shortages won't end quickly and stocks are undervalued, stock prices are falling." He analyzed that excessive leverage liquidation and anxiety about volatility amplified the decline.
Physical Constraints Prevent Semiconductor Supply Excess Within 5 Years
Park drew a line against semiconductor bubble theories based on statements by Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO. He stated, "Even if big tech companies try to execute funds, bubble collapse within 5 years is impossible due to physical constraints," adding, "Power, land, and DRAM are all insufficient, so even if they want to build extensively, they physically cannot." He added, "It's a structure that cannot expand excessively."
CXMT IPO Funds and AI Summit Government Participation Identified as Market Variables
The direction of subscription funds for CXMT (Changxin Memory), a company listed on China's STAR Market, was also presented as a variable. The analysis suggests that funds recovered after subscription completion could move back to global semiconductor representative stocks such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Contrary to some negative evaluations of the 'San Francisco AI Summit', Park found significance in government participation itself. He judged the government's participation in establishing declarative and institutional foundations as positive news. He explained that the market accepted this as Samsung SDS, Naver, and other AI-related stocks moved strongly.
Park stated that the way the market accepts information can have a greater impact on stock prices than the information itself. He said, "Distribution channels are more important than the source of information," adding, "Stock prices don't rise just because a company is good; the environment is important." He also explained, "Even with the same content, results differ depending on how people interpret it."
This Week's Market Test: Holding Support Levels and Breaking 7000 Line
Regarding this week's stock market, Park viewed whether existing support levels hold as key. Park stated, "I said all last week that it was a week of confirming the bottom," adding, "If this week doesn't break the support level and exceeds the 7000 line, the possibility of confirming the bottom becomes much higher."
Major big tech earnings announcements and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remain as variables in this week's market. With rate freeze expectations dominant and time remaining until the next meeting in September, analysis suggests market pressure could partially decrease.
FAQ
Q: What physical constraints did Park Byung-chang cite against semiconductor bubble theories on July 27?
A: Park Byung-chang cited power, land, and DRAM shortages as physical constraints that make supply excess difficult to determine, stating that even if big tech companies try to execute funds, they physically cannot build extensively due to these limitations.
Q: How much did individual investor credit balance decrease in July according to MP Partners CEO?
A: According to Park Byung-chang, individual investor credit balance decreased by approximately 5 trillion won during July, with deleveraging continuing to influence the market.
Q: What is the key market test for this week identified by Park Byung-chang?
A: Park identified whether stocks hold existing support levels and exceed the 7000 line this week as the key test for confirming market bottoms, with major big tech earnings and the FOMC meeting remaining as variables.
