Samsung SDI is forecast to post an operating loss of 31.3 billion won on revenue of 3.6862 trillion won in Q2 2026, according to a July 13 compilation by Yonhap Infomax of estimates from seven major Korean securities firms issued within the past month. The loss represents a significant reduction from the 397.8 billion won operating loss in Q2 2025 and the 155.6 billion won loss in Q1 2026, driven by growth in energy storage system (ESS) and AI data center battery sales alongside Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC) benefits. Analysts view Q2 as a potential bottom for the company's earnings cycle, with recovery prospects hinging on ESS production ramp-up and European electric vehicle battery shipment improvements in the second half of 2026.
Seven Securities Firms Forecast Q2 2026 Operating Loss of 31.3 Billion Won
The consensus Q2 2026 revenue estimate of 3.6862 trillion won reflects a 16% increase from the same period in 2025 and a 3% rise from Q1 2026. Operating loss projections from the seven securities firms ranged from near breakeven to approximately 75 billion won, with the 31.3 billion won consensus marking substantial improvement from prior quarters. Some firms incorporated ESS profitability gains and tariff refund effects to forecast a return to operating profit, while others maintained loss projections based on continued low EV battery utilization rates.
ESS and AI Data Center Batteries Drive Q2 Margin Improvement
Increased North American ESS sales combined with AMPC credits on U.S.-produced volumes reduced losses in the mid-to-large battery segment. Securities firms estimated Q2 AMPC credits at 80 billion to 100 billion won. Ahn Hoe-soo, researcher at DB Securities, stated that even partial refunds of tariffs imposed on ESS products manufactured in Asia and sold in the U.S. last year represent a meaningful scale, adding that tariff refunds could deliver ESS margin surprises while AMPC receipts would narrow EV segment losses. The small battery division sustained growth in AI data center battery backup units (BBU) and uninterruptible power supply (UPS) products, with higher proportions of high-value data center products gradually reducing losses despite lower profitability in power tool and e-bike batteries.
EV Battery Sales Decline 25-35% in First Five Months of 2026
EV battery shipments to key customers including BMW, Rivian, and Stellantis remained weak. Samsung SDI's EV battery sales volume from January to May 2026 fell 25-35% compared to the same period in 2025, with global market share estimated to have dropped to 1.4% in May. Jung Kyung-hee, researcher at LS Securities, noted that Samsung SDI's EV battery sales decline runs counter to global market growth trends, adding that while U.S. ESS sales are increasing moderately, the pace is insufficient to fully offset EV battery weakness. Yoo Min-ki, researcher at Sangsangin Securities, assessed that meaningful EV battery earnings recovery is difficult to expect until early 2027 given intensifying competition in the European EV market, though profit growth should become evident from Q4 as North American ESS production ramps up.
Analysts Expect Profitability Return in Q3 or Q4 2026
The market assigns higher probability to Q2 marking the earnings bottom. Second-half 2026 improvements are expected to come sequentially from expanded European automaker shipments, U.S. joint venture ESS production conversion, mass production of U.S.-made lithium iron phosphate (LFP) ESS batteries, and rising AMPC credits. The electronic materials division is forecast to generate stable profits from increased semiconductor and OLED material shipments. Lee An-na, researcher at Yuanta Securities, stated that while Q4 profitability return is the base case, Q3 return is highly possible considering electronic materials, data center BBU/UPS, European EV shipment recovery, and existing ESS margin improvements. Ahn Hoe-soo assessed that the company is on track for second-half profitability with new Hyundai-Kia projects at European plants raising utilization rates, continued ESS volume growth at U.S. StarPlus Energy, and planned year-end LFP line operations. Sustained earnings improvement beyond one-time factors such as tax credits and tariff refunds requires confirmed recovery in EV battery shipment volumes and utilization rates.
FAQ
What is Samsung SDI's forecast operating result for Q2 2026?
Samsung SDI is forecast to post an operating loss of 31.3 billion won on revenue of 3.6862 trillion won in Q2 2026, based on estimates from seven Korean securities firms compiled by Yonhap Infomax on July 13. This represents a significant reduction from the 397.8 billion won loss in Q2 2025 and the 155.6 billion won loss in Q1 2026.
Why did Samsung SDI's Q2 2026 operating loss decrease compared to prior periods?
The loss reduction was driven by increased North American ESS sales, AMPC credits estimated at 80-100 billion won on U.S.-produced volumes, potential tariff refunds on ESS products sold in the U.S., and growth in AI data center battery backup units and uninterruptible power supply products. These factors offset continued weakness in EV battery sales, which fell 25-35% in the first five months of 2026.
When do analysts expect Samsung SDI to return to profitability?
Analysts expect Samsung SDI to return to operating profit in Q3 or Q4 2026. Lee An-na of Yuanta Securities stated that while Q4 is the base case, Q3 profitability is highly possible given electronic materials performance, data center battery growth, European EV shipment recovery, and ESS margin improvements. Ahn Hoe-soo of DB Securities noted second-half profitability is supported by European plant project ramp-ups, U.S. ESS volume increases, and planned year-end LFP production.
