Grayscale Says HYPE Undervalued at 15x Forward Earnings vs Fintech Peers

HYPE0.23%
COING3.81%
Key Takeaways
  • Grayscale Research published a valuation analysis stating Hyperliquid (HYPE) appears undervalued at 15x to 18x forward earnings.
  • HYPE projects $3.25 to $3.75 earnings per token by 2027 based on assumed $1 billion annual earnings.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) has dropped 29% from mid-June all-time high amid institutional unstaking and fund outflows.

Grayscale Research published a valuation analysis Tuesday stating that Hyperliquid (HYPE) appears undervalued compared to fintech equities. The asset manager's Head of Research Zach Pandl applied an 'earnings per token' methodology, projecting the token trades at a 15x to 18x forward multiple based on assumed 2027 earnings of $1 billion and a circulating supply of 270 million to 310 million tokens. The analysis arrives as HYPE faces downward price pressure, having dropped 13% in the past month and 29% from its mid-June all-time high amid large-scale institutional unstaking and fund outflows.

Grayscale Projects $3.25 to $3.75 Earnings Per Token by 2027

In the note published Tuesday, Pandl valued HYPE using an 'earnings per token' method that adapts the earnings-per-share metric used for stocks. Grayscale assumes Hyperliquid will earn roughly $1 billion in 2027, representing approximately 20% growth from 2025 levels. The firm expects recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income under Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset framework to drive the growth.

Pandl estimates the circulating supply will reach 270 million to 310 million tokens by the end of 2027. That produces projected earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 per token. At the current price of $54, the resulting forward multiple sits at roughly 15x to 18x. "Despite the gains in Hyperliquid's HYPE token this year, it still looks cheap compared to fintech equities," the note stated.

Pandl flagged weaker network revenue growth and faster token supply growth as the main risks to the forecast.

HYPE Drops 29% From Mid-June All-Time High

The token traded near $54 at press time, roughly 29% below its all-time high set in mid-June. HYPE has dropped over 13% in the past month, diverging from large-cap assets that held gains.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Performance Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Multicoin and Paradigm Unstake $291 Million in HYPE

Institutional unstaking and fund outflows have pressured the token through July. Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked around $291 million in HYPE last week. Multicoin Capital received 1.29 million HYPE (approximately $71.1 million) from Hyperliquid after unstaking, and shortly after moved 101,340 HYPE (approximately $5.60 million) to Coinbase.

Spot HYPE funds posted $8.6 million in outflows last week, marking their second straight weekly loss, while assets fell 18% from a July 10 peak.

FAQ

What valuation method did Grayscale use for HYPE?

Grayscale Research applied an 'earnings per token' methodology in its Tuesday analysis. Head of Research Zach Pandl assumed Hyperliquid will earn roughly $1 billion in 2027 with a circulating supply of 270 million to 310 million tokens, producing projected earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 per token. At $54, this represents a forward multiple of roughly 15x to 18x.

How much did institutional investors unstake from Hyperliquid last week?

Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked around $291 million in HYPE last week. Multicoin Capital received 1.29 million HYPE (approximately $71.1 million) from Hyperliquid after unstaking and subsequently moved 101,340 HYPE (approximately $5.60 million) to Coinbase. Spot HYPE funds recorded $8.6 million in outflows during the same period.

What is HYPE's current price compared to its all-time high?

HYPE traded near $54 at press time, approximately 29% below its all-time high set in mid-June. The token has dropped over 13% in the past month.

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