Gold fell 1.6% to about $4,110 an ounce and silver dropped 4.3% to $59.70 during the week as Iran halted its ceasefire on July 8. The decline erased gains from a Monday rally triggered by weak June jobs data showing just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls added, well below the 110,000 economists expected. Renewed military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation expectations, pressuring both metals despite initial optimism that the Federal Reserve would move closer to cutting interest rates. The FOMC minutes released July 10 showed a divided committee still focused on inflation, keeping September rate hike odds near 50% according to market pricing and adding further downward pressure on precious metals.
Weak Jobs Report Drives Monday Rally in Gold and Silver
Spot gold started the week near $4,175 an ounce. Futures pushed as high as $4,215.50 on Monday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls added in June, well below the roughly 110,000 economists expected. The BLS also cut its April and May job totals by a combined 74,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
Traders read the weak jobs print as a sign that the Federal Reserve would move closer to cutting interest rates. The dollar weakened against major currencies. Gold and silver both climbed into the holiday-shortened week, with silver touching $62.80 an ounce and gold trading above $4,200.
Iran Ceasefire Collapse Triggers Precious Metals Selloff on July 8
The rally did not last. President Trump stated on July 8 that a fragile ceasefire with Iran was over. Renewed strikes tied to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz followed, and oil prices jumped on fears of a wider disruption. Higher oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, and Treasury yields rose along with them.
Gold futures fell from an open near $4,106.50 to an intraday low of $4,032.50 that same day, a drop of close to 2%. Silver fell harder. Futures closed down 4.55% at $58.54, based on data from COMEX. Spot silver briefly traded near $58 an ounce during the session. Two days later, on July 10, Trump warned Iran of more military action.
"Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
FOMC Minutes Show Divided Fed on Rate Policy
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its June meeting minutes on July 10. The minutes showed a divided committee still focused on inflation that has not fully cooled. That kept the odds of a September rate hike near 50%, according to market pricing cited in the report, and added to the pressure on both metals just as the Iran news hit.
Physical Buyers Support Gold Near $4,030 Level
Gold and silver both bounced back on July 9. Gold futures rose 1.43% to close at $4,140.80. Silver climbed 3.77% to about $60.75. Traders and dealers pointed to physical buying, meaning purchases of actual bars and coins rather than paper futures contracts, as the reason prices held near $4,030 to $4,080 instead of falling further.
Premiums in physical hubs including Dubai, Shanghai, and India firmed during the dip, a sign that demand for the metal itself outpaced the selling pressure in futures markets. Analysts at USAGOLD and Bullionvault described the pattern as bargain hunting near key psychological price levels.
Friday brought a quieter session. Gold futures slipped about 0.65% to close at $4,113.70, while silver eased 0.96% to $60.17. Weekend trading stayed thin, with spot gold settling between $4,108 and $4,120 and spot silver near $59.70 to $59.75 heading into the new week.
Gold closed out the week down 1.3% to 1.6% from its July 5 starting point. Silver ended closer to $59.70, down roughly 4.3% over the same stretch.
Silver Falls 4.3% on Combined Industrial and Inflation Concerns
Silver moves more than gold in both directions because more than half of silver demand comes from industrial uses like electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles, not just investment. When growth fears rise alongside inflation fears, as they did after the Iran news, silver gets hit from two sides at once.
The gold-to-silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, widened during the July 8 selloff and settled in the 67 to 70 range by the weekend. A wider ratio means silver underperformed gold on a relative basis over the week.
Gold tested support near the $4,000 to $4,100 range multiple times without breaking down, with physical buying cited repeatedly as the floor beneath the market. Resistance showed up between $4,150 and $4,200, a zone gold approached but failed to clear after Monday's early spike.
Central bank gold buying remained a background support through the week, along with the physical demand that limited losses compared with past selloffs. Gold remains down sharply from highs above $5,300 reached earlier in the year, but the July pullback stayed shallow next to that broader correction.
For now, gold and silver traders are pricing in two competing forces. A weaker labor market points toward lower rates and higher metal prices. A wider Middle East conflict points toward higher oil, higher inflation, and higher bond yields, all of which work against gold and silver.
FAQ
What caused gold to fall 1.6% during the week starting July 8?
Gold fell 1.6% to about $4,110 an ounce after Iran halted its ceasefire on July 8. Renewed strikes tied to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation expectations, which pressured precious metals despite an initial rally from weak June jobs data.
Why did silver drop more than gold during the same period?
Silver dropped 4.3% to $59.70 because more than half of silver demand comes from industrial uses like electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles. When growth fears rose alongside inflation fears after the Iran news, silver was hit from two sides at once, causing it to underperform gold.
What did the FOMC minutes released on July 10 reveal about Federal Reserve policy?
The FOMC minutes released on July 10 showed a divided committee still focused on inflation that has not fully cooled. The minutes kept the odds of a September rate hike near 50% according to market pricing, adding downward pressure on gold and silver.
