According to Odaily and Jin10, global central banks are facing mounting pressure to consider interest rate increases as crude oil prices approach $100 per barrel. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are preparing for energy-driven inflation, while the European Central Bank has signaled readiness for another rate hike. Investors are betting most central banks in this cohort may act as early as September.
Brent crude's rebound is now driven by multiple supply disruptions beyond Strait of Hormuz risks and Red Sea blockades. Visible Hormuz shipping has dropped near zero, global inventories are depleted, and new supply constraints are escalating. Russia's fuel exports remain constrained by ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, while Kazakhstan has begun reducing output following the closure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export terminal.