Commerzbank: U.S. AI Investment Boom to Continue; 12-Month S&P 500 PER at 20x, Below 2000 Dotcom Peak

According to Commerzbank, on July 10, the bank's senior economist Bernd Weidensteiner said U.S. AI infrastructure investment will likely sustain despite overheating concerns. Real IT equipment and software investments are projected to rise about 50% since ChatGPT's 2022 launch—moderate compared to the 120% surge during the 1990s dotcom bubble at a comparable stage.

Commerzbank noted the S&P 500's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at approximately 20x, below the 25x peak during the 2000 dotcom crash. Even if the AI investment cycle weakens, systemic banking crises similar to 2008 remain unlikely, as past tech bubbles were absorbed through equity corrections rather than debt defaults.