BTC 15-minute pullback of 0.46%: short-term sell pressure triggered by the escalation of the Iran-Iraq conflict and a weakening U.S. dollar

On July 16, 2026, 12:30–12:45 (UTC), BTC’s 15-minute candlestick closed down 0.46%. The price retreated to the $63,869.5–$64,215.4 (USDT) range. The amplitude was 0.54%. Over the past 24 hours, it fell by about 1.80%, dropping from a $65,600 high to around $63,993. However, the order book’s bid depth was stronger than the asks, and short-term sell pressure has begun to ease.

The main driver of this unusual move is a sharp escalation in the U.S.-Iran military conflict. The U.S. launched a seven-hour intensive airstrike campaign against Iran, with the strike area expanding to the region around Tehran for the first time. The Strait of Hormuz is in a “constrained and highly tense” state, and global energy supply chains face disruption risk. Oil prices have surged to $71.51 per barrel, and inflation expectations have reignited. Gold stayed above $4,000, maintaining safe-haven pricing, but BTC—often dubbed “digital gold”—has not yet formed a consistent safe-haven bid, leading to short-term downward pressure and a pullback.

Meanwhile, the DXY has weakened for two straight days, down about 0.8% in total. June PPI’s month-over-month decline of 0.30% should have benefited risk assets, but geopolitical uncertainty combined with unclear Fed policy signals (the Beige Book shows inflation is still a challenge, and Chair Warsh sidestepped key issues) has dampened risk-asset rebound momentum. ETF flows remain resilient, with a daily net inflow of $108 million. BlackRock’s IBIT led net inflows at $80.82 million, and institutions have not shown panic exits. Order book data show the bid/ask depth ratio at 1.76, with bids in control. At $63,993.4, there is a large buy wall of 0.9173 BTC (accounting for 95.1% of total bids in the top 5 levels), indicating stronger near-term downside support.

Key focus now is how the U.S.-Iran situation evolves. If the Strait of Hormuz is fully locked down and oil prices spike further, it could trigger more large-scale selling of risk assets; conversely, if a ceasefire is reached, risk appetite could recover quickly. Downside support to watch is $63,855 (24h low). Upside resistance to watch is $65,600 (24h high). It is recommended to continuously monitor ETF fund flows, the DXY, and crude oil prices in tandem, and watch for price-gap risk caused by insufficient order book liquidity.