Brent crude oil settled at $100.69 a barrel on Thursday after Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, marking the first time the global benchmark closed above $100 in two months. The settlement represented a gain of about 7% and a fifth consecutive session of gains. By Friday press time, Brent eased to $98.64, down 2.04% per OilPrice.com data, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 1.67% to $90.65. The price movement followed Houthi forces claiming responsibility for attacks on the Saudi vessels, framing them as enforcement of a blockade of Saudi ports the group declared on 20 July. The rally extends a three-week surge from $71.57 on 1 July per CNBC, representing a gain of more than 40%, which began unwinding after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on 17 June to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent Retreats Below $100 After Thursday Peak
Brent remains up more than 13% on the week despite Friday's retreat. The three-week move from $71.57 on 1 July puts the rally at more than 40% in three weeks. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on 17 June to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had been closed for most of the period since late February, apart from a brief reopening to commercial shipping in April under a two-week ceasefire. The market spent early July pricing peace. Brent rallied through the week from around $86 to a peak above $102 on Thursday before settling at $100.69 and easing back below $100 on Friday.
Houthi Forces Strike Two Saudi Tankers in Red Sea
Houthi forces claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, framing them as enforcement of the blockade of Saudi ports the group declared on 20 July. The diplomatic track closed at the same time. Washington and Tehran have both ruled out near-term talks. President Donald Trump threatened "major military punishment" over further attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and told Axios he was weighing a "massive attack" on Iran, per Bloomberg. Attacks on shipping continue around Hormuz, US strikes on Iran have continued, and Asian buyers are weighing longer and costlier routes.
Kazakhstan Halts CPC Terminal Crude Transfers After Drone Strikes
Kazakhstan halted crude transfers to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal at Novorossiysk after four drone strikes in four days hit tankers loading there. The attacks came from Ukraine, targeting a terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast. CPC carries roughly 80% of Kazakh crude exports and more than 1% of global supply, moving about 70.5 million tonnes in 2025 from the Tengiz and Kashagan fields, with Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni and Shell among the producers using it. Kazakhstan has rerouted some volume through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The market is carrying disruption from two conflicts that have nothing to do with each other.
Crude Price Surge Feeds Into Inflation With Multi-Week Lag
Crude feeds into headline inflation through fuel and transport costs with a lag measured in weeks, not hours, so a price that round-trips $100 in a single session still leaves its mark on the next print. Central banks that had been weighing the timing of cuts are looking at an input that has moved more than 40% since the start of the month. J.P. Morgan Global Research projects Brent averaging $86 a barrel in the third quarter, $80 in the fourth and $78 at year-end, all substantially below spot. The EIA's July outlook was lower still. Those forecasts were built on a reopened Hormuz and returning production. The pattern this month has been sharp premiums that decay rather than persist. Brent spiked to $127 within two weeks of Russia's invasion and gave the spike back within days but held above $100 for roughly six months and cleared only when displaced Russian barrels found new buyers in India and China rather than when the war ended.
FAQ
What caused Brent crude to settle above $100 on Thursday?
Brent crude settled at $100.69 a barrel on Thursday after Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The Houthi forces claimed responsibility for the attacks, framing them as enforcement of a blockade of Saudi ports the group declared on 20 July.
How much has Brent crude gained over three weeks?
Brent crude rallied from $71.57 on 1 July per CNBC to above $100 on Thursday, representing a gain of more than 40% in three weeks. The benchmark remains up more than 13% on the week despite retreating to $98.64 by Friday press time.
What disrupted Kazakhstan's crude exports?
Kazakhstan halted crude transfers to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal at Novorossiysk after four drone strikes in four days hit tankers loading there. The attacks came from Ukraine, targeting a terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast. CPC carries roughly 80% of Kazakh crude exports and more than 1% of global supply.
