Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas warned on X that Bitcoin ETFs may be following the historical path of Gold ETFs. Bitcoin and gold are both value-storage vehicles that do not generate cash flow, unlike stocks with earnings support and bonds with interest payments. Fidelity’s IBIT currently has assets under management (AUM) of about $60 billion, down sharply from the $100 billion peak it briefly touched last year.
Balchunas’s Historical Comparison of GLD and IBIT
(Source: Bloomberg)
According to Eric Balchunas’s analysis on X, there is a “remarkable historical coincidence” between IBIT and GLD: GLD (SPDR gold ETF issued by State Street Global Advisors) briefly surged past SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, after a powerful rally in 2011, taking the spot as the world’s largest ETF. However, it then took nearly eight years to return to a similar level. During that period, inflows slowed significantly, and market attention clearly cooled.
Balchunas noted that IBIT’s current situation is similar to what GLD looked like after topping out back then—at the $10 billion threshold, it “stood there for only a few short hours.”
He added that after each bull-and-bear cycle, gold ETFs have always gone on to set higher new highs; in other words, even after years of consolidation, as long as long-term demand remains, the peak of each bull market may still keep rising.
2026 Market Data: Bitcoin Down 30% This Year, IBIT Shrinks to $60 Billion
According to the latest market data in the original report as follows:
IBIT AUM: about $60 billion, down sharply from last year’s $100 billion peak in October
Bitcoin: about $63,000 last Friday; down about 30% year-to-date, after a roughly 50% drop from last October’s all-time high
Gold: about $4,000 per ounce in spot last Friday; down about 7% this year, but still up about 19% over the past 12 months
Bailard Q2 Digital Assets AUM: about $49 billion, down from nearly $80 billion, down 40% year-over-year
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Record Their First Weekly Net Inflow
According to the original report, weak crypto prices and conservative market sentiment had previously suppressed capital momentum for crypto ETFs; however, last week saw a turnaround. Both U.S. Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs posted their first weekly net inflows since early May 2026, indicating that some investors are looking to take the opportunity to reposition after dips.
FAQ
What situation did Eric Balchunas warn Bitcoin ETFs may face?
According to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas’s analysis on X, Bitcoin ETFs could repeat the post-topping trajectory of the gold ETF (GLD) in 2011: after reaching its peak, GLD took nearly eight years to return to similar levels, during which inflows slowed. Balchunas noted that both are “assets that do not generate cash flow,” with prices driven by investor sentiment.
What is IBIT’s current AUM, and how does it compare with its historical high?
According to the original report, IBIT’s current AUM is about $60 billion, down sharply from the $100 billion peak it briefly touched when Bitcoin hit its all-time high in October last year. Balchunas said the time IBIT spent above the $10 billion threshold was “only a few short hours.”
What are the latest figures for Fidelity Q2 Digital Assets AUM?
According to Fidelity’s latest earnings report, Q2 digital assets AUM fell sharply from nearly $80 billion to about $49 billion, down 40% year-over-year, mainly driven by a sharp drop in the prices of Bitcoin and Ether.
