Jurrien Timmer, Director of Fidelity Global Macro, analyzed that Bitcoin approached the lower support zone of the Power Law model on the morning of the 13th at 9 AM, when Bitcoin traded at $63,780 according to global crypto market platform CoinGecko. The Power Law model, which Timmer has tracked for years, indicates Bitcoin is currently undervalued by approximately 56%, positioning it in what he characterizes as an accumulation zone for long-term investors. This valuation level resembles the bear market bottoms of 2018 and 2022, though Timmer cautioned that confirming a market bottom remains premature given the absence of clear catalysts such as recovering global liquidity. As Bitcoin's market capitalization expands and institutional financial products including spot ETFs proliferate, industry observers note the cryptocurrency exhibits progressively smaller price multipliers each cycle compared to the explosive growth patterns of earlier years.
Bitcoin Approaches Power Law Model Lower Support at 56% Undervaluation
According to crypto media outlet CoinDesk, Jurrien Timmer analyzed that Bitcoin approached the lower support zone of the Power Law model he has tracked for years. The Power Law model represents Bitcoin's long-term price movement through upper, middle, and lower trend lines. The lower trend line has explained most major lows since 2015. Bitcoin currently sits at approximately 56% undervaluation based on this model, which Timmer evaluated as an accumulation zone for long-term investors. This level resembles the positions at the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms. Timmer diagnosed that determining a market bottom remains premature, noting that the speculative premium that drove Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000 last year has mostly disappeared, and the slowdown in global money supply growth leaves few clear catalysts to drive prices higher in the near term.
Bitcoin Cycle Returns Diminish from 75x in 2017 to 1.8x in 2025
Bitcoin has repeated approximately four-year cycles centered around halving events. Market analysts project the possibility that the next upward cycle could begin from the end of this year and form a new peak around 2029. Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs in every cycle since 2013, but the upward multiples have decreased significantly. The 2017 peak rose approximately 75 times compared to the previous cycle, but this declined to approximately 3.5 times in 2021 and approximately 1.8 times in 2025, showing substantially slower expansion.
Institutional Products and Market Maturation Reduce Bitcoin Volatility
The industry views that as Bitcoin's market scale expands and institutional financial products such as spot ETFs, futures, and options proliferate, gradual upward trends are more likely than the sharp fluctuations of the past. The analysis indicates that as the market matures, the capital required to move prices increases and volatility will gradually decrease.
FAQ
What is the Power Law model that Jurrien Timmer uses to analyze Bitcoin?
The Power Law model represents Bitcoin's long-term price movement through upper, middle, and lower trend lines. The lower trend line has explained most major lows since 2015. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Fidelity Global Macro, has tracked this model for years to identify accumulation zones.
How much have Bitcoin cycle returns decreased over time?
Bitcoin's upward multiples have decreased significantly since 2013. The 2017 peak rose approximately 75 times compared to the previous cycle, declining to approximately 3.5 times in 2021 and approximately 1.8 times in 2025, according to the source analysis.
Why does the article suggest Bitcoin volatility is decreasing?
As Bitcoin's market scale expands and institutional financial products such as spot ETFs, futures, and options proliferate, the capital required to move prices increases. Industry observers note this market maturation process gradually reduces volatility compared to earlier explosive growth patterns.
