Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen published an analysis comparing Bitcoin's current movements to past market cycles to address ongoing uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Cowen argued that the current market structure combines elements from two different eras: structurally resembling a less volatile version of the 2018 bear market, while macroeconomically mirroring the stagnation period of 2019–2020. The analyst identified specific parallels between Bitcoin's 2026 price movements and the 2018 bear market pattern, including February local lows, March-April higher lows, May resistance rejections, and June-July liquidity sweeps in both periods.
Cowen Identifies 2018-2026 Bitcoin Pattern Parallels
Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin's price movements in 2026 mirror the bear market of 2018. The analyst listed specific similarities between the two periods:
- Bitcoin hit a local low in both February 2018 and February 2026
- Both periods recorded a higher low at the end of March and the beginning of April
- In May, the bear market was rejected from the resistance band, leading to a lower peak
- In late June and early July, the lows from February were swept away through liquidity cleanup
Cowen stated that following the current recovery in July, Bitcoin could retest the resistance band in late July or early August. The analyst noted that it is historically normal for these gains to be reversed in August and September.
Analyst Warns Altcoins May Repeat 2018 Value Loss
Cowen issued a warning about altcoins by recalling the 2018 cycle. He noted that while Bitcoin recovered from its June low in July and maintained the $6,000 level as support until November 2018, the altcoin market suffered a significant loss of value during that period. Cowen described this as altcoins "melting away" despite Bitcoin's relative stability.
The analyst stated that risk appetite remains low in the current period and that money is not flowing into altcoins.
Cowen Predicts Earlier Market Bottom Than 2018 Cycle
Cowen stated he believes the 2018 pattern will break down towards the end of the year. He noted that in 2018, Bitcoin reached its market bottom in December. However, because the peak in this cycle occurred earlier than in the previous cycle—in October—Cowen predicts that the market bottom may also come earlier, perhaps at the end of September or the beginning of October.
The analyst added that Bitcoin is currently stuck between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band. Cowen stated that Bitcoin may need one final downward cleanup wave for a complete reset of on-chain data and the start of a new bull run.
The article included a disclaimer stating "This is not investment advice."
FAQ
What pattern did Benjamin Cowen identify between Bitcoin 2018 and 2026?
Benjamin Cowen identified four specific parallels: Bitcoin hit local lows in February of both 2018 and 2026, recorded higher lows in late March and early April in both periods, experienced May rejections from resistance bands leading to lower peaks, and saw February lows swept away in late June and early July through liquidity cleanup in both cycles.
What did Cowen say about altcoins compared to Bitcoin in 2018?
Cowen stated that in 2018, while Bitcoin recovered from its June low in July and maintained the $6,000 level as support until November, the altcoin market suffered a significant loss of value and "melted away." He noted that risk appetite remains low in the current period and money is not flowing into altcoins.
When does Cowen predict the market bottom may occur?
Cowen predicts that the market bottom may come at the end of September or the beginning of October, earlier than the December 2018 bottom, because the peak in this cycle occurred earlier in October compared to the previous cycle.
