#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 30 April Bitcoin Observation: Fed’s 8:4 Rare Split, Powell’s “Last Dance” Ends, Battle for $75,000 Defense Line Imminent
Internal Fed Disagreement Reaches 30-Year High, Powell Warns of “Significantly Elevated” Inflation Before Leaving Office, Bitcoin Tests $75,000 Support and Ranges — A Storm Is Brewing.
On the early morning of April 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced as scheduled to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%—3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate cuts, in line with market expectations.
But beneath the “expected” appearance, a split has shaken the global markets.
一、Fed internal split: 4 dissenting votes and Powell’s “Last Dance”
After the 8-4 voting result was announced, the entire market felt the tension erupting within the Fed.
The 4 dissenting votes set the most serious split vote record since October 1992. Fed Governor Milan advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut; Cleveland Fed President Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan opposed including “accommodative stance” in the statement. The three officials opposing “accommodative stance” agreed that inflation remains above target and risks are skewed upward, and language should not imply rate cuts.
Powell, in his final press conference during this term, admitted that the number of officials supporting a neutral bias has increased, and the rate guidance may change at the next meeting.
This meeting also notably marked the end of Powell’s Fed chair tenure. He briefly said at the press conference: “Wishing Kevin W. all the best. This is my last press conference as Chair.” He then confirmed that after stepping down in May, he will remain on the Fed Board, becoming the first official since 1948 to stay on as a director after resigning as Chair.
He explained: “I originally planned to fully retire, but the events of the past three months left me no choice but to stay until matters are resolved.”
He then warned that political interference could bring disastrous consequences to markets and the economy, and directly stated that the Fed’s independence is under threat, “if the Fed makes politically colored decisions, markets will lose confidence.”
The inflation outlook is even more alarming. The Fed’s statement language was significantly upgraded, changing the description of inflation from “moderately elevated” to “significantly elevated,” attributed to recent global energy price increases.
二、Market immediate reaction: oil prices surge, Bitcoin plunges, largest four-year swing
Following the rate decision, markets quickly shifted to risk aversion mode.
As the decision failed to ease inflation concerns, Brent crude futures settled up 6.08%, at $118.03 per barrel; WTI crude futures settled up 6.95%.
Cryptocurrency markets came under pressure. Bitcoin briefly dropped to a low of $75,337.4, after trading near $78,000 the previous day. As of 10:30 that day, Bitcoin traded around $76,000, Ethereum fell about 3.2% to $2,250.65; XRP down 1.6% to $1.37, most altcoins continued downward. The Fear & Greed Index was at 40, in the “neutral” zone.
三、Fund flows: institutions buy $1.2 billion for four consecutive weeks, but the trend is changing?
Despite macro pressures, the high fever of institutional fund inflows has not fully cooled.
CoinShares weekly report shows that as of the week ending April 26, digital asset investment products recorded a net inflow of $1.2 billion, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows, with total assets under management rising to $155 billion, the highest since February 1. The US led with $1.1 billion; Germany, Switzerland, and Canada also saw positive inflows, indicating broad demand.
Bitcoin led with $933 million inflow, bringing the total since the start of the year to $4 billion. Ethereum products saw inflows of over $190 million for the third consecutive week; XRP also returned to net inflow after a week of outflows.
But on the other side, on April 28, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $263 million, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT did not see new funds that day; earlier, on April 27, IBIT experienced its first outflow since launch in January 2026 — $112 million in a single day.
The continuous inflow momentum of ETFs was first broken, and with IBIT’s first “blood loss,” a subtle cooling signal is emerging in the funding landscape.
四、On-chain chip transfer: retail investors flee, institutions scoop up
Despite price volatility downward, on-chain data reveal a picture of two extremes.
April data shows short-term holders (less than 155 days) reduced holdings by about 290,000 BTC within 30 days, while long-term holders, ETFs, and strategic institutions absorbed over 370,000 BTC in the same period. Long-term holders shifted from distribution to accumulation — a core indicator of market confidence as defined by Glassnode.
ARK Invest’s Q1 report also shows that “believers”’ holdings surged from 2.13 million to 3.6 million BTC, a 69% quarterly increase, the fastest absorption since the 2020 Bitcoin cycle.
More notably, as of the end of April, the share of long-term holder addresses’ balances reached a record high of 74%-76%. Institutional holdings of circulating BTC account for about 24%-28%, up about 17 percentage points from the 2020 halving. From the “hype retail chasing gains” phase, Bitcoin is increasingly being priced by long-term institutions.
In Q1, the main selling pressure came from miners, with listed miners selling over 32,000 BTC, the largest quarterly outflow ever, mainly due to halving reducing block rewards and income. As miner selling pressure gradually eases, the latest April data further confirms a new pattern of on-chain chips shifting toward institutional pricing.
五、Geopolitical shadows: oil prices cast shadow over Bitcoin
The language upgrade in the Fed statement did not come out of nowhere.
Oil prices remain high, with Brent surging over $118 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and inflation transmission are the biggest concerns for US officials. The Fed directly acknowledged that evolving Middle East tensions are increasing economic uncertainty.
If the Iran conflict escalates further, and oil prices continue rising, the Fed’s future rate cut window could be further squeezed, and the cryptocurrency market will continue to face liquidity tightening expectations.
CICC analysis points out that amid Iran tensions and high oil prices, CME rate futures have delayed expectations for rate cuts until December 2027. Huatai Securities suggests that the Fed may directly remove rate cut guidance from the dot plot at the June meeting. Bloomberg’s U.S. economic analysis team summarized that unless there is a major deterioration in the labor market, it’s “hard to imagine this divided committee will act quickly to cut rates.”
六、$75,000 defense battle: showdown before the US East weekend
In the complex backdrop of the Fed’s “wait-and-see,” ongoing Middle East conflicts, and subtle shifts in institutional funds, market volume has not expanded, and buyers and sellers remain cautious. Many analysts believe that $75,000 is a critical support line for Bitcoin:
· If successfully defended, market confidence will recover, prompting cautious institutions to re-enter, with the next target again challenging the $80,000 psychological barrier;
· If confidence further collapses, prices may range sideways briefly and then break below, with the next technical support near $72,000 in a dense trading zone.
Conclusion: Calm before the storm, a test of faith
The Fed’s internal split hits a 30-year record, Powell steps down as Chair but remains on the board, Middle East tensions remain uncertain, and the gap between holdings and price push is evident — Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads.
On-chain data shows long-term holders and institutions are “buying the dip,” while short-term holders and retail investors are fleeing. This polarization suggests that regardless of who wins the $75,000 battle, the longer-term Bitcoin valuation narrative has quietly shifted amid market confusion.
Internal Fed Disagreement Reaches 30-Year High, Powell Warns of “Significantly Elevated” Inflation Before Leaving Office, Bitcoin Tests $75,000 Support and Ranges — A Storm Is Brewing.
On the early morning of April 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced as scheduled to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%—3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate cuts, in line with market expectations.
But beneath the “expected” appearance, a split has shaken the global markets.
一、Fed internal split: 4 dissenting votes and Powell’s “Last Dance”
After the 8-4 voting result was announced, the entire market felt the tension erupting within the Fed.
The 4 dissenting votes set the most serious split vote record since October 1992. Fed Governor Milan advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut; Cleveland Fed President Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan opposed including “accommodative stance” in the statement. The three officials opposing “accommodative stance” agreed that inflation remains above target and risks are skewed upward, and language should not imply rate cuts.
Powell, in his final press conference during this term, admitted that the number of officials supporting a neutral bias has increased, and the rate guidance may change at the next meeting.
This meeting also notably marked the end of Powell’s Fed chair tenure. He briefly said at the press conference: “Wishing Kevin W. all the best. This is my last press conference as Chair.” He then confirmed that after stepping down in May, he will remain on the Fed Board, becoming the first official since 1948 to stay on as a director after resigning as Chair.
He explained: “I originally planned to fully retire, but the events of the past three months left me no choice but to stay until matters are resolved.”
He then warned that political interference could bring disastrous consequences to markets and the economy, and directly stated that the Fed’s independence is under threat, “if the Fed makes politically colored decisions, markets will lose confidence.”
The inflation outlook is even more alarming. The Fed’s statement language was significantly upgraded, changing the description of inflation from “moderately elevated” to “significantly elevated,” attributed to recent global energy price increases.
二、Market immediate reaction: oil prices surge, Bitcoin plunges, largest four-year swing
Following the rate decision, markets quickly shifted to risk aversion mode.
As the decision failed to ease inflation concerns, Brent crude futures settled up 6.08%, at $118.03 per barrel; WTI crude futures settled up 6.95%.
Cryptocurrency markets came under pressure. Bitcoin briefly dropped to a low of $75,337.4, after trading near $78,000 the previous day. As of 10:30 that day, Bitcoin traded around $76,000, Ethereum fell about 3.2% to $2,250.65; XRP down 1.6% to $1.37, most altcoins continued downward. The Fear & Greed Index was at 40, in the “neutral” zone.
三、Fund flows: institutions buy $1.2 billion for four consecutive weeks, but the trend is changing?
Despite macro pressures, the high fever of institutional fund inflows has not fully cooled.
CoinShares weekly report shows that as of the week ending April 26, digital asset investment products recorded a net inflow of $1.2 billion, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows, with total assets under management rising to $155 billion, the highest since February 1. The US led with $1.1 billion; Germany, Switzerland, and Canada also saw positive inflows, indicating broad demand.
Bitcoin led with $933 million inflow, bringing the total since the start of the year to $4 billion. Ethereum products saw inflows of over $190 million for the third consecutive week; XRP also returned to net inflow after a week of outflows.
But on the other side, on April 28, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $263 million, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT did not see new funds that day; earlier, on April 27, IBIT experienced its first outflow since launch in January 2026 — $112 million in a single day.
The continuous inflow momentum of ETFs was first broken, and with IBIT’s first “blood loss,” a subtle cooling signal is emerging in the funding landscape.
四、On-chain chip transfer: retail investors flee, institutions scoop up
Despite price volatility downward, on-chain data reveal a picture of two extremes.
April data shows short-term holders (less than 155 days) reduced holdings by about 290,000 BTC within 30 days, while long-term holders, ETFs, and strategic institutions absorbed over 370,000 BTC in the same period. Long-term holders shifted from distribution to accumulation — a core indicator of market confidence as defined by Glassnode.
ARK Invest’s Q1 report also shows that “believers”’ holdings surged from 2.13 million to 3.6 million BTC, a 69% quarterly increase, the fastest absorption since the 2020 Bitcoin cycle.
More notably, as of the end of April, the share of long-term holder addresses’ balances reached a record high of 74%-76%. Institutional holdings of circulating BTC account for about 24%-28%, up about 17 percentage points from the 2020 halving. From the “hype retail chasing gains” phase, Bitcoin is increasingly being priced by long-term institutions.
In Q1, the main selling pressure came from miners, with listed miners selling over 32,000 BTC, the largest quarterly outflow ever, mainly due to halving reducing block rewards and income. As miner selling pressure gradually eases, the latest April data further confirms a new pattern of on-chain chips shifting toward institutional pricing.
五、Geopolitical shadows: oil prices cast shadow over Bitcoin
The language upgrade in the Fed statement did not come out of nowhere.
Oil prices remain high, with Brent surging over $118 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and inflation transmission are the biggest concerns for US officials. The Fed directly acknowledged that evolving Middle East tensions are increasing economic uncertainty.
If the Iran conflict escalates further, and oil prices continue rising, the Fed’s future rate cut window could be further squeezed, and the cryptocurrency market will continue to face liquidity tightening expectations.
CICC analysis points out that amid Iran tensions and high oil prices, CME rate futures have delayed expectations for rate cuts until December 2027. Huatai Securities suggests that the Fed may directly remove rate cut guidance from the dot plot at the June meeting. Bloomberg’s U.S. economic analysis team summarized that unless there is a major deterioration in the labor market, it’s “hard to imagine this divided committee will act quickly to cut rates.”
六、$75,000 defense battle: showdown before the US East weekend
In the complex backdrop of the Fed’s “wait-and-see,” ongoing Middle East conflicts, and subtle shifts in institutional funds, market volume has not expanded, and buyers and sellers remain cautious. Many analysts believe that $75,000 is a critical support line for Bitcoin:
· If successfully defended, market confidence will recover, prompting cautious institutions to re-enter, with the next target again challenging the $80,000 psychological barrier;
· If confidence further collapses, prices may range sideways briefly and then break below, with the next technical support near $72,000 in a dense trading zone.
Conclusion: Calm before the storm, a test of faith
The Fed’s internal split hits a 30-year record, Powell steps down as Chair but remains on the board, Middle East tensions remain uncertain, and the gap between holdings and price push is evident — Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads.
On-chain data shows long-term holders and institutions are “buying the dip,” while short-term holders and retail investors are fleeing. This polarization suggests that regardless of who wins the $75,000 battle, the longer-term Bitcoin valuation narrative has quietly shifted amid market confusion.
