#Bitcoin Reaches New High in Nearly a Month

Folks, this morning when I saw this big bullish candle, didn't it feel like your whole body's energy flow became unblocked? $74,050—this is the highest level since February 5th. In the past 24 hours, nearly 130,000 people were liquidated, with short positions accounting for over 80% of that. This wave of short-squeeze action was truly violent.

Gate Square happens to be soliciting opinions, so let me join in and share my thoughts on the logic behind this rally, as well as my current trading strategy.

1️⃣ Does Kevin Warsh's nomination mean rate cut expectations are heating up?

Let me start with the conclusion: the market is trading "expectations," but don't mistake "nomination" as "immediate rate cuts."

Although the White House has submitted the nomination to the Senate, and Trump has repeatedly expressed hopes for "significant rate decreases" under the new Fed chair, Warsh himself has indeed recently shifted toward supporting faster rate cuts. But there are two "roadblocks" in between that might delay rate cuts:

· Roadblock one: Inflation rebound from geopolitical tensions. Trump has acted against Iran, oil prices are rising, and inflation could follow. Minneapolis Fed President Kachkari has already signaled that we must now consider the "new shock's" impact on the economy. In this wartime state, even if Warsh takes office, pushing for immediate rate cuts could face a situation where "even clever housewives struggle without rice."
· Roadblock two: Senate procedural resistance. Some senators have indicated they will block the nomination until investigations into Powell are resolved. So this political game isn't over yet.

Therefore, I believe Bitcoin's sharp surge is less about pricing in "immediate rate cuts" and more about the market front-running "elimination of policy uncertainty" and "improved liquidity environment expectations."

2️⃣ At this juncture, should I hold and wait for gains, chase longs with momentum, or reverse positions to bet on a pullback?

Honestly, being at this level is awkward. Empty positions fear missing out, while existing positions fear corrections. My strategy is: don't be an extreme bull camp, nor a mindless short-hunter—be a flexible "smooth operator."

Here's exactly how I'm doing it:

1. Core position: Hold and wait for gains, but set a "defense line."
This volume breakout above the previous high ($74,050) shows the market's dominant force has truly shifted to bulls. For positions accumulated from 60,000s and above, the current profit buffer is thick enough. My approach: keep holding, but move my stop-loss/take-profit line (or psychological defense level) up to the $70,000 psychological level. As long as it doesn't break here, I treat it as normal advance continuation.
2. Short-term capital: Only buy dips, don't chase rallies.
RSI and other indicators are indeed slightly elevated, and the risk-reward ratio for chasing isn't great. My short-term plan: if price dips to the $72,000-$71,000 range and holds, I'll consider adding a bit. But if it just shoots higher, I'll stay on the sidelines. Missing a bit of profit is fine; it beats being caught at the top.
3. On pullbacks: don't actively "reverse" and go short.
In this powerful breakout action, shorting against the trend is like "catching a falling knife." Even if I want to bet on a pullback, I need clear top signals (like volume-confirmed long upper wicks on 4-hour timeframes), not just guessing based on feeling right now.

Summary:
Warsh's nomination has opened people's imagination about accommodative policies, while geopolitical uncertainty has caused some capital to overflow from gold toward Bitcoin, this kind of "digital gold." Although I'm bullish long-term, near this $74k historical pressure level, maintaining caution is never wrong.

Right now, I'm choosing to be a "cautious bull": holding coins with a calm mind, but keeping bullets in my pocket for more comfortable prices.