Polymarket 上預測「美國在 2027 年之前證實外星人存在的概率」飆升至 22%

CFTC 主席：将发布预测市场监管指南，为新型事件合约建立明确规则

美國商品期貨交易委員會主席Mike Selig宣布發布針對預測市場的明確指南，以幫助交易平台理解CFTC對新合約的期望，確保透明規則並防止市場操縱和濫用行為。

U.S. CFTC Chair: Will Issue Clear Guidance on Prediction Markets to Prevent Manipulation and Insider Trading

美國CFTC主席Mike Selig發佈預測市場指南，旨在幫助交易平台理解監管期望，以確保新合約透明規則，防範操縱和濫用行為。同時將發佈擬議規則預通知，為新市場制定清晰行事規則。

犹他州 HB243 法案将预测市场定义为赌博，Kalshi 提起联邦诉讼

Utah HB243 bill classifies "proposition betting" as gambling, expected to be signed by the governor, prohibiting platforms like Kalshi from operating. Kalshi has filed federal litigation, arguing its contracts are derivatives, while the CFTC chair stated it will defend its regulatory authority.

두 개의 높은 승률 주소가 15,000달러를 투자하여 미국-이란이 5월 전에 휴전하지 않을 것으로 押注 Wait, let me correct that. You asked for Traditional Chinese translation, but the text is already in Traditional Chinese. 两个高胜率地址投入1.5万美元，押注美伊五月前不会停火

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," collectively investing 15,000 USD, with the current price at 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing transit through the Strait of Hormuz to stall, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.

Wall Street Giants Betting on Prediction Markets: Open Interest Hits $1.2 Billion New High, U.S. Congress Prepares to Regulate

隨著預測市場交易規模擴大，華爾街大型經紀機構逐漸進入該領域。然而，立法者對其潛在風險表達擔憂，計劃實施新監管措施。機構資金和年輕投資者推動市場發展，但監管層對快速擴張的關注增加。

3個高盈利帳戶投入1.33萬美元，押注以色列將於本月在黎巴嫩發動大規模地面攻勢

預測市場平台數據顯示，3個帳戶合計投入1.33萬美元，押注以色列將在3月31日前對黎巴嫩發動大規模攻勢，目前概率為68.5%。儘管以色列軍方支持行動，但美國对此持保留態度。