Can Bitcoin break through $80k?

Article: Blockchain Knights

Can Bitcoin break through $80k? Bitcoin is accelerating towards the $80k mark, rising 12% in the past 30 days, with market share exceeding 60%.

The current market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy changes, imbalance in the derivatives market, and ETF capital flows. Although it appears to be showing signs of recovery, the sustainability of the rebound still faces severe tests.

The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is a direct catalyst for recent market movements. The Trump administration announced a two-week extension of the ceasefire, easing market concerns over escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts, and pushing Bitcoin up 7% since the news was announced.

However, geopolitical risks have not been fully eliminated. Iran has explicitly opposed the current negotiation terms, the Strait of Hormuz remains navigable with limited capacity, and US sanctions on Iranian ports have not been lifted. These structural disadvantages continue to suppress market risk appetite.

Additionally, the transfer of Federal Reserve power has become a new market variable.

Jerome Powell’s term is ending, and nominee Kevin W. W. has advocated for a flexible inflation framework at the confirmation hearing, abandoning the 2% fixed inflation target, opposing forward guidance, and favoring interest rates as the main policy tool.

His stance is interpreted as the Fed possibly lowering interest rates more quickly, which would benefit liquidity-dependent assets like Bitcoin. However, the April 28 Fed meeting may not immediately cut rates, and policy easing remains uncertain.

Imbalance in the derivatives market and tightening supply are major drivers of the market. Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2023, with a seven-day moving average as low as -0.008%. The sentiment index is near historical lows seen in 2015 and 2022, indicating the market may be approaching a local bottom.

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to a seven-year low, and the squeeze risk oscillation indicator is approaching warning levels. In the past 24 hours, $300 million in short positions were liquidated, and forced buybacks have artificially boosted demand, becoming a core driver pushing prices toward $80k.

ETF capital inflows support the market, but institutional participation remains cautious. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently continued to attract funds, with a total inflow of $1.3 billion over the past few days, and after ETF outflows in early March, inflows have gradually resumed, indicating institutions have not fully exited.

Moreover, Strategy has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings, with a total of over 760k coins, further consolidating market support.

The market still faces multiple constraints. The IMF warns that escalating geopolitical conflicts could weaken economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate remains at 3.5%-3.75%, not entering an aggressive easing cycle.

Resistance above $80k is significant, with ETF investors and short-term whales’ breakeven points concentrated between $76,400 and $79,600. There is also short-term holder resistance around $83,055, making a breakthrough more difficult.

At the same time, regulatory environments are tightening. The EU’s MiCA transition period is ending soon, further limiting market expansion.

Future trends depend on three key factors: whether ETF capital inflows can continue, whether macro pressures (geopolitical, interest rates) ease, and whether derivatives financing rates improve.

If all three improve simultaneously, Bitcoin is likely to break through resistance and sustain a longer rebound. If macro risks intensify or capital inflows slow, the current rebound may only be a short-term squeeze after a bear market, with the market potentially returning to volatility or facing further corrections.