Crypto Sentiment Hits 3-Month High; Bitcoin Holds $77K Amid Speculative Risks

The Crypto Market Fear and Greed Index has climbed to its highest level since January 18, reaching 46 over the past 24 hours, according to data from Alternative.me. This represents a 14-point jump from the previous day and marks the largest single-day increase recorded so far this year, signaling a notable shift in market sentiment despite the index remaining in the “fear” zone.

Sentiment Recovery and Capital Inflows

The current recovery reflects a gradual build rather than a sudden shift. The uptrend began around April 13, when the index dropped to 12, one of its weakest levels this year, before steadily improving in the weeks that followed. Sharp increases of this nature typically point to rising social engagement and renewed attention toward crypto assets, though sentiment has struggled to break out of the fear range since mid-January.

Source: Alternative.me

This shift in sentiment has coincided with a quiet but steady return of capital into the market. Since April 13, total crypto market capitalization has expanded by $193.13 billion, rising 8.13% to $2.58 trillion, a level that has previously acted as a resistance zone. Flows into crypto investment products further support this trend. Recent data shows that total crypto exchange-traded products attracted $1.4 billion in inflows, the highest weekly figure since January, extending a three-week streak of positive flows largely driven by U.S.-based investors.

Macro Drivers of Recovery

Macro conditions have played a key role in this improvement. Easing geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, following a ceasefire with no immediate escalation, has helped stabilize broader risk sentiment. This has encouraged renewed capital allocation from institutional investors, particularly in the U.S., alongside corporate and retail participation.

Speculative Positioning and Downside Risks

Underlying risks remain evident, particularly as on-chain data points to a market increasingly driven by speculative activity, most notably in Bitcoin trading around $77,000. Demand across derivatives markets has surged relative to spot activity, with perpetual futures leading the current move. This divergence mirrors conditions seen in early January, when Bitcoin approached $98,000 before facing a sharp pullback.

Such a setup raises the likelihood of a repeat pattern, where profit-taking in leveraged markets spills over into broader selling pressure. Early signs of this dynamic are already visible, with spot netflow data showing $263 million in realized selling over the past day.

Source: CoinGlass

Market Analyst Perspectives

Caution from market analysts reinforces this view. João Wedson of Alphractal maintains that the broader market structure has yet to confirm a transition into a sustained bull phase. “This bear market may last a bit longer. At least another five to six months is what I believe,” he said. His outlook draws on the relationship between long-term and short-term holder realized prices. Historically, a confirmed bull cycle has followed a crossover between these metrics, a condition that has yet to materialize in the current market.

Still, not all market participants share this cautious stance. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, argues that the crypto market may be approaching the end of what he describes as a “mini crypto winter.” The firm recently increased its exposure to Ethereum to 4.12% following its latest purchase, reflecting growing confidence in a near-term recovery. According to Bitmine’s outlook, the market could be entering a relief phase, with the firm positioning early through continued accumulation.