I just reviewed a very interesting study by XWIN Research Japan on how FOMC meetings actually work in the Bitcoin market. The conclusion is surprising: it turns out these meetings do not determine the medium-term direction, but rather act as catalysts for traders to reposition their strategies.

They analyzed 24 meetings between 2022 and 2024, and what they found is revealing. Only 17% of these events caused sustained directional changes in Bitcoin's price. That is, most of the time the market moves on the announcement, but then finds its own rhythm again. What really happens is that these meetings act as short-term volatility catalysts and trigger leveraged position liquidations, nothing more.

They identified three clear phases: first, accumulation before the meeting, then strong volatility when the announcement is released, and afterward, the actual repositioning. The interesting part is that sustainable Bitcoin movements depend much more on fundamental indicators like deleveraging and liquidity recovery than on the technical details of monetary policy itself.

One data point caught my attention: open positions 3 to 5 days after FOMC meetings have a 42% higher success rate. It makes sense because, during those days, excess leverage has already been cleared, and the market begins to show its true direction. So if you wait for the initial volatility to pass and let the catalysts do their work, you have a better chance of correctly reading the market movement.

This makes me think that many traders get too caught up in the noise of FOMC meetings when they should focus on fundamentals. Catalysts are useful for identifying liquidation moments, but not for predicting the actual trend. It’s worth keeping this in mind the next time an FOMC meeting is approaching.