Just caught Benjamin Cowen's latest take on Bitcoin and honestly, it's worth paying attention to. While BTC has bounced up to around $78K, the analyst is flagging some serious structural weaknesses that most people might be overlooking right now.

Cowen's been comparing the current price action to what we saw back in 2018 and 2022, and the patterns are pretty similar. His thesis is that we could be looking at a local peak sometime by late April, with a potential pullback coming into early May. The Fed meeting on April 29 is basically a ticking time bomb that could accelerate things either way.

Here's what caught my attention though - Benjamin Cowen is really emphasizing stablecoin dominance as the key metric to watch. When USDT and USDC are sitting at elevated levels on the 100-day MA, it's basically a signal that smart money is rotating out of Bitcoin into cash. That's not necessarily bearish forever, but it's definitely a yellow flag for the short term.

The prediction from Cowen gets more interesting when you zoom out. He's suggesting Bitcoin could test the $60K level again later this year, with May and June being historically weak months for the market. Not exactly what people want to hear when they're hoping for a straight shot up, but that's what the data seems to be saying.

Bottom line from Benjamin Cowen's analysis: don't get complacent just because we've recovered a bit. The real confirmation of a market bottom won't come until we see Bitcoin repeatedly test and hold support levels throughout the year. Stay cautious, keep your stops tight, and don't FOMO into strength right now.