Yesterday I looked at the curves of stablecoin supply and ETF net inflows, and the more I looked, the more I felt that everyone is too eager to treat "simultaneous occurrence" as "causation." An increase in stablecoins doesn't necessarily mean new money is coming in; it could also be an off-chain shell swap, an internal exchange move, or even just risk-averse sentiment finding a parking spot. The same goes for ETFs—good net inflows don't immediately ignite on-chain activity; a lot of money simply doesn't want to deal with the hassle on the chain.

Recently, RWA, U.S. Treasury yields, and on-chain yield products have been compared side by side. I do look at them, but honestly, their "substitutability" isn't that strong: some people want liquidity, some want a compliant shell, and others just want to sleep more peacefully. Anyway, I'm now more concerned about divergences: trending keywords are hot but on-chain activity isn't matching, or stablecoins are increasing but risk appetite isn't rising... At such times, I remind myself not to rush into causal assumptions.