A Look At Republic Services (RSG) Valuation After Mixed 2025 Earnings And Softer 2026 Revenue Guidance

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 18, 2026 at 4:11 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Republic Services (RSG) is back in focus after its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, where profits topped analyst expectations while revenue and 2026 guidance came in below Wall Street forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Republic Services.

The share price has eased in the very short term, with a 1 day share price return of 0.89% decline and a 7 day share price return of 0.84% decline. A 30 day share price return of 4.85% and a multi year total shareholder return of 165.42% over five years suggest longer term momentum has been stronger. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 2.2% decline shows some recent cooling as investors weigh the earnings beat against softer revenue and 2026 guidance.

If earnings driven names like Republic Services are on your radar, it could be a good moment to see what else is out there through our list of 23 top founder-led companies.

With profits ahead of expectations, softer revenue and guidance, and the shares trading at a discount to some analyst and intrinsic estimates, are you looking at an underappreciated compounder here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.4% Undervalued

With Republic Services last closing at $221.19 against a most followed fair value estimate of about $244.21, the current setup hinges on how much weight you put on its long term projects and margin story.

Sustainability efforts such as the development of Polymer Centers and the Blue Polymers joint venture could drive future revenue growth by enhancing plastic circularity and decarbonization. These operations are expected to contribute to earnings starting in the second half of 2025.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that optimism on future earnings? The narrative ties together moderate growth, firmer margins and a higher future earnings multiple. The full breakdown shows how those ingredients support that fair value.

The fair value estimate in this narrative rests on a blend of projected revenue growth in the mid single digits, a gradual lift in profit margins and a valuation multiple above the broader US Commercial Services industry. It applies a discount rate of about 7.26% to those future cash flows, then compares the implied value to where the shares trade today, which is why the current price sits below the narrative fair value line.

Result: Fair Value of $244.21 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

Story Continues  

However, softness in construction-linked volumes and any hiccups integrating the planned US$1b of acquisitions could quickly challenge that earnings and valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Republic Services narrative.

Another Angle On Valuation

On simple earnings metrics, Republic Services looks less clear cut. The current P/E of 32.5x sits higher than the US Commercial Services industry at 25.7x and also above the fair ratio of 29.3x, although it is below the peer average of 38.1x. Does that signal quality, or just a thinner margin of safety?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:RSG P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution feels familiar, take a moment to look through the numbers yourself and decide what really matters for your portfolio, starting with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Republic Services has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, this is a great moment to widen the net and see what other opportunities stand out.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include RSG.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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