Looking at the recent FOMC minutes, there's something the markets are overlooking. The narrative that the US-Iran détente would be a catalyst for rate cuts no longer holds water. In fact, the Fed is quite clear on this: the conflict doesn't eliminate inflation, it just changes how we address it.

What's interesting is that inflation persists for structural reasons, not just due to geopolitical shocks. Delayed tariffs, elevated energy prices, long-term inflation expectations anchored at higher levels. This puts the Fed in an uncomfortable position: it can't ease its policy because inflation is still there, but it also can't tighten further without risking a recession. The result is that we're moving toward a phase where rates will stay high longer than many expected.

In crypto markets, the recent bullish move in BTC is better seen as a liquidity replenishment after some extreme risk was dissipated, not as a fundamental change. Recently, BTC tried to break the 73,000-73,300 zone but couldn't sustain it. Now, the price is around 75.6K, but the structure suggests the move is more technical than driven by real capital inflow.

Liquidation maps reveal something revealing: there is a significant concentration of liquidity at those upper resistance zones, but demand for continuation is weak. The range where we see real rotation is 70,100-69,800. Downward, the stronger supports are between 66,600-64,800. It's the typical pattern where upper liquidity attracts longs and lower supports provide stability.

As long as this macroeconomic uncertainty remains unresolved, BTC will continue to be more a reflection of risk appetite than an independent driver. Inflation and monetary policy decisions will remain the true game controllers. That's why it's worth paying attention to how these dynamics evolve in the coming weeks.