When looking at on-chain Bitcoin data, a somewhat concerning movement has emerged. The realized profit/loss ratio falling below 1 is a sign that traders are selling while still holding losses. This pattern has been observed during past bear markets, and afterward, a significant decline almost always followed.

Looking at the data from 2022 and 2018, after this ratio drops below 1, there is a further 25-50% decline over the next six months. If the current trend follows the same pattern, there could be continued selling pressure for more than five months. According to the MVRV indicator, extreme low levels are around $44,000. If the current trend persists, analysts also point out that prices could drop to this level by summer.

Of course, the past doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but at least when such signals appear, it might be worth paying attention to the $44,000 target range. I think this is a phase where close monitoring of market movements is necessary.