Gate officially integrates with Polymarket! Today's hot prediction events overview

In 2026, the most captivating narrative in the crypto world is shifting from “trading assets” to “trading events.” As a global leading cryptocurrency exchange, Gate officially integrated with Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, in March 2026, becoming the first centralized exchange (CEX) to integrate the platform globally. This groundbreaking move enables more than 51 million Gate users to participate in predictions of global hot events with a single click.

Gate Integrates Polymarket: Opening a New Door to Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are becoming one of the most watched tracks in the 2026 crypto industry. According to Dune Analytics data, in March 2026 the number of monthly users on prediction markets rose 118% year over year to 865,411, and nominal trading volume was close to $23.89 billion. Even more notably, on March 27, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a $1.6 billion investment in Polymarket. These signals clearly show that prediction markets are being recognized by mainstream finance—moving from a “marginal track” to the “main battlefield.”

Gate’s integration precisely solves the problem of Polymarket’s relatively high native usage barrier, bringing three core advantages to more than 51 million users:

• Seamless access for funds accounts: Users don’t need to manage complex seed phrases or use cross-chain bridges. They can directly participate in prediction trading using USDT from their Gate spot account, without additional Gas fees.
• Fusion of dual trading modes: The prediction mode is designed to help beginners get started quickly, while the trading mode provides an order book, K-line charts, and limit/market orders to meet the strategy needs of professional traders.
• Simplified settlement mechanism: After an event is settled, the winning returns will be automatically exchanged 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to the spot account, eliminating the on-chain settlement waiting period and slippage risk.

Today’s Hot Prediction Events (2026.4.14)

1. The probability of Israel launching strikes on Yemen drops sharply

According to Gate News, on April 14, the probability on Polymarket for “Israel will launch strikes on Yemen before April 30” fell to 14%, down 32% within 24 hours. Today in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio hosted talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, focusing on the possibility of a ceasefire. As diplomatic mediation gets underway, market expectations that Israel will open a new front in Yemen have cooled significantly.

2. Divergence emerges in prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire

On Polymarket, the market believes there is a 28% probability that Trump will officially announce the end of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire before April 21, while the probability that the ceasefire will be extended is about 43%, showing a split signal. On April 8, the White House announced that Trump ordered a two-week pause in military actions against Iran, but the two sides failed to reach an agreement. Trump then announced that the Strait of Hormuz blockade would begin today (April 14).

3. Prediction for the number of Trump’s Truth Social posts will be revealed soon

On Polymarket, the prediction market for Trump’s total number of posts on Truth Social this week (April 7 to 14) has attracted significant attention. Market data shows that traders are bullish, with a 92% probability that Trump’s post volume this week will fall between 120 and 139. The market will reveal the result today at noon, with total trading volume of $337,116.

4. Federal Reserve interest rate decision: 99% probability of holding rates

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April is 99%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is only 1%. On Polymarket, traders are betting on an approximately 36% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates throughout 2026. As the US-Iran conflict pushes oil prices above $110, market expectations for “the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates” are strengthening.

5. WTI crude oil price expectations surge

Due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the probability on Polymarket that “WTI crude oil will reach $110 in April 2026” surged to 67%, up 20% within 24 hours, and the total trading volume of this event contract has already exceeded $24 million.

How to Participate in Polymarket Predictions on Gate?

Through the cooperation between Gate and Polymarket, investors can participate in predictions of global hot events very conveniently. Here are the simple steps:

1. Update the Gate App: Update the Gate App to v8.12.5 or above.
2. Enter the Polymarket module: On the Gate App home page, click into the Alpha page, and find the Polymarket section.
3. Select the prediction outcome and place an order: Based on the event odds, choose “Yes” or “No” for your prediction, and decide the amount you want to buy.
4. Wait for results and settle: When the event ends, the platform will settle your trades based on the actual outcome, and correct predictions will receive the corresponding rewards.

Summary

Gate’s integration with Polymarket is an important milestone for the crypto industry’s shift from “trading assets” to “trading events.” Today, the hot prediction events on Polymarket cover multiple areas including geopolitics (US-Israel conflict, US-Iran ceasefire), cryptocurrencies (BTC price, ETH price), macroeconomics (Federal Reserve interest rates, WTI crude oil), and political regulation (Trump’s cryptocurrency legislation). With seamless access for more than 51 million Gate users, prediction markets are entering an unprecedented development opportunity.

Whether you are a newcomer to prediction markets or an experienced professional investor, you can easily participate in global event predictions through the Gate platform—using your judgment to capture potential investment opportunities. The prices in prediction markets reflect the collective judgment forged through thousands of market participants betting with real money, and their accuracy has been verified across multiple fields. Gate is making prediction markets more accessible, more in-depth, and more valuable.