#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

As of April 13, 2026 (current), there are no definite end dates for the end of major global wars; there are only institutional forecasts and trend assessments:

1. Russia-Ukraine War (2022.2.24—to present)

- Current situation: Year 5, frontline stalemate, war of attrition.
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- Mainstream forecast (2026):
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- Fall and winter of 2026: Most likely a ceasefire along the current front line (freeze the conflict), similar to the model of the Korean Peninsula.
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- Not complete peace: Territorial/political differences are shelved in the long term, with low-intensity standoffs.
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- Conclusion: It will be difficult to truly end before the end of 2026, and it will most likely become protracted.

2. US-Iran— conflict (2026.2—to present)

- Current situation: About 2 months since the war began, with mutual attacks by missiles/drones, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
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- Institutional forecasts (including ICG, etc.):
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- Q2 2026 (April–June): About 70% probability of a phased ceasefire.
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- Large-scale fighting may end, but low-intensity confrontation could continue for another 6–12 months.
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- Risk: If it escalates into ground warfare or nuclear issues, it could become protracted (more than 6 months).

3. Israel—Hamas (Gaza, 2023.10—to present)

- Current situation: Ongoing for about 1.5 years, with a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
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- Forecast:
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- In the short term (within 2026), it will be difficult to completely end; ceasefires will keep coming and going, and the situation will remain a stalemate.

4. Historical reference (World War II)

- 1945.8.15: Japan announces surrender
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- 1945.9.2: Surrender document signed; World War II officially ends
 

One-sentence summary

- Russia-Ukraine: Ceasefire before the end of 2026, but not peace
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- Middle East (US-Iran): A ceasefire turning point around mid-2026 (4—6月)
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- Gaza: Still difficult to fully end within 2026