Not something interesting passing by that you actually don't want to miss. Six accounts on Polymarket have earned about $1.2 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would attack Iran on February 28. Blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps discovered these insiders by tracking transaction patterns. What stands out: all these wallets were created in February and funded through similar channels, just before reports of explosions in Tehran.

The timing is what you might call... suspicious. Most wallets became active within 24 hours before the attack. One account bought more than 560,000 'Yes' shares at about 10.8 cents each — a position that nearly yielded $560,000 when the market closed at $1. Another account made six figures with roughly 150,000 shares purchased at 20 cents. Bubblemaps published a visual map showing how these six insiders were connected through similar funding channels.

The market itself was huge: trading volume on the February 28 contract reached nearly $90 million. Since December, strike-date markets have accumulated over $529 million in bets. So a lot of money in motion, but these insiders clearly knew what was coming.

The interesting part is that this is happening while regulators are questioning how to handle insider trading on prediction markets. This week, Kalshi ( announced that it suspended and fined two users for insider trading — including a visual effects editor for MrBeast who traded based on knowledge of show outcomes. Kalshi said it had investigated around 200 cases and had more than a dozen ongoing investigations.

The CFTC issued a warning last week that trading on event contracts with insider information might violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the 'first line of defense' against such practices. Kalshi imposed a two-year suspension and a fine of over $20,000 on that employee.

What’s even funnier: Polymarket traders also appeared to have engaged in insider trading last week on a market designed to detect insider trading itself. Blockchain detective ZachXBT announced he would publish findings about crypto platform Axiom, and suddenly a Polymarket contract appeared predicting which company would be investigated. Lookonchain identified 12 wallets heavily betting on Axiom before the reveal. So insiders were even trading on the insider trading market itself.

The question now is how regulators will handle this. It’s clear that prediction markets without strict controls can become playgrounds for insiders. The volume, timing, funding patterns — it all points in the same direction.