## 1. Why Do Time Windows Produce “Deceptive” Results?

As you’ve observed, choosing different starting points (benchmarks) can lead to conclusions that are wildly different:
• Schiff’s logic (micro/local): If you choose a starting point near the peak in 2021, Bitcoin’s volatility over the past few years has indeed diluted its gains, and even in certain stages, it has underperformed the steady S&P 500 or the recent surge in gold and silver.
• Saylor’s logic (macro/cycle): If you look at the decade before, or earlier than, the 2020 halving cycle, Bitcoin’s annualized compound growth rate (CAGR) almost crushes all traditional assets.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is a high-volatility, high-expected-return asset. Measuring a digital asset that is in the very process of “monetization” by the standards used to value “low-volatility value stocks” itself creates bias.
## 2. How Should Investors Objectively Assess Asset Performance?
To avoid being skewed by a specific time window, it’s recommended to evaluate from the following three dimensions objectively:
• Risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio):
Don’t just look at the gains. While Bitcoin has risen quickly, its volatility is extremely high. A mature investor will look at which asset delivers higher returns when bearing the same level of volatility risk.
• Holding costs and liquidity:
Gold has physical storage and authentication costs, and silver’s volatility is driven by industrial demand fluctuations. Bitcoin’s advantage lies in extremely low cross-border transfer costs and 24/7 liquidity. When assessing value, these “friction costs” should also be factored in.
• Fundamental indicators (not price):
Rather than staring at the coin price, look at on-chain data: the number of active addresses, hash rate (security), the number of non-zero addresses, and institutional holdings (such as ETF inflows). These are the “foundation stones” that support long-term value.
## 3. What Is Bitcoin’s Long-Term Value Like?
I believe Bitcoin’s long-term value doesn’t lie in whether it can beat the Nasdaq every five years; it lies in the uniqueness of its role as a **“decentralized store of value.”**
• Anti-inflation property: Against the backdrop of global fiat currency money printing and issuance, Bitcoin’s hard supply cap of 21 million coins is its core moat.
• Asset allocation value: For modern investors, Bitcoin is more of a non-correlated asset. Even if you don’t believe it will double, adding a 1%–5% allocation to your portfolio can effectively improve the overall portfolio’s return performance without significantly increasing risk.#Gate广场四月发帖挑战