March is coming to an end. Here's a summary of this month's turbulence:

Opinion 1: Macro downside is an indiscriminate blow.
The main market themes are rising oil prices, tariffs, and sticky inflation. All risk assets are affected, and high-valuation assets in traditional stocks face devaluation risks as well—it's not just the crypto world that's pessimistic.

Opinion 2: Data faces multiple setbacks.
U.S. PMI at the beginning of March showed business activity dropping to an 11-month low, with input costs and output prices rising simultaneously. Private sector employment contracted for the first time in over a year.

Opinion 3: High oil prices mainly threaten U.S. stock market valuations.
Barclays pointed out that if high oil prices push inflation higher and force the Fed to tighten, the S&P 500 could fall to 5,900 by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $85 (with a high-risk scenario of $135).

Opinion 4: Tariff costs are still directly borne by traditional stocks.
Disclosed tariff impacts for companies are estimated to total about $21 billion to $22.9 billion in 2025, and nearly $15 billion in 2026.

Opinion 5: The underlying fragility of stocks and crypto assets stems from different sources.
Most crypto assets rely on liquidity and narrative strength, while the core valuation formula for stocks is based on future earnings expectations and valuation multiples.

Opinion 6: The current environment warrants a comprehensive downgrading of risk asset optimism.
Assets supported solely by loose liquidity and high valuations can be equated to certain crypto assets. Projects with genuine profitability, cost transfer capabilities, or benefiting from capital expenditure can still be held and invested in long term.
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