Oriental Fortune Financial Breakfast March 19 Thursday

Daily Highlights

Trump Currently Does Not Want to Attack Iran’s Energy Facilities:

On March 18, local time, according to The Wall Street Journal citing U.S. officials, after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field that day, President Trump stated he “does not want to see further attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.” Reports indicate that Trump was briefed in advance about Israel’s plans to strike South Pars and expressed support, aiming to send a message to Iran in response to its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials say Trump believes “Iran has understood this message,” and thus currently opposes further attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. However, depending on Iran’s future actions in this strategic waterway, Trump may reconsider targeting more Iranian energy facilities. Israeli media report that the Israeli Air Force attacked a “major natural gas facility” in southern Iran that day and is prepared to strike other Iranian infrastructure. Israeli media also state that this attack was “coordinated” with the U.S.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady:

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, amid escalating Middle East conflicts and soaring oil prices, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its latest interest rate decision, aligning with market expectations, keeping the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive meeting without change. The closely watched “dot plot” shows that most members expect one rate cut this year and another in 2027, though specific timing remains unclear. In Wednesday’s press conference, Powell stated that U.S. inflation remains stubborn and the outlook uncertain—variables from Middle East tensions to tariff disruptions are interrupting the inflation decline. Powell mentioned that individual policymakers’ rate expectations are uncertain, and the dot plot is not a preset path; future decisions will be made at each meeting. He acknowledged some members favor reducing the number of rate cuts in the future.

Iran Declares Oil Facilities in Three Middle Eastern Countries as Legitimate Targets:

On March 18, Mehr News Agency reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an emergency warning that oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are legitimate targets and will be attacked in the coming hours, urging residents in the region to evacuate. Previously, Iran’s South Pars and Asaluyeh petrochemical facilities in Busher Province were attacked by the U.S. and Israel. Iran later reported that the South Pars phases 3 to 6 natural gas plants were hit by U.S. and Israeli drones. Details of the attacks are still under investigation.

Trump Exempts Enforcement of the Jones Act:

Trump exempts the enforcement of the Jones Act to curb high oil prices. The exemption applies to oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and coal. The White House announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act. Under the Act, cargo transported between U.S. ports must be carried by U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged, and U.S.-owned ships. This significantly limits the number of tankers available for domestic shipping. Experts say that waiving this regulation would allow foreign ships to transport fuel within U.S. ports, helping to alleviate supply disruptions and potentially lowering energy prices.

Second Round of Land Contract Expiration Extension Pilot:

The “Opinions on the Pilot Work of Extending the Second Round of Land Contract Expiration by 30 Years” was released, detailing specific arrangements for the extension pilot. The document includes overall requirements, a cautious and orderly approach to the extension, protection of farmers’ land rights, management of land contract agreements, and strengthened organizational leadership, totaling 15 specific measures. It emphasizes maintaining collective ownership, family contracting, farmers’ dominant role, and social stability in rural areas.

Trump Announces Postponement of China Visit:

On March 18, at a regular press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said that Reuters reported President Trump has confirmed the postponement of his China visit, stating the meeting with China will occur in about five to six weeks, and China has accepted this arrangement. Lin Jian responded that high-level diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic role in China-U.S. relations, and both sides will continue to communicate regarding Trump’s visit.

Strict Crackdown on Capital Markets:

On March 17, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting for 2026 on comprehensive strict governance and disciplinary inspection work, deploying measures to implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Discipline Inspection Commission. The meeting emphasized deepening targeted anti-corruption efforts, focusing on key personnel and issues, increasing case investigations, especially cracking down on those damaging market order and harming small investors, and removing obstacles to market reform and development.

Baidu Cloud Announces Price Increase:

On March 18, Baidu Cloud announced price adjustments for AI computing power, storage, and other products. Driven by rapid growth in AI applications and rising hardware costs, some product prices will increase structurally—AI computing services up by approximately 5%-30%, parallel file storage (Intelligent Computing version) up by about 30%. These price changes take effect from 00:00 on April 18, 2026 (Beijing time).

Chemical Giant BASF Announces Price Hikes:

Due to soaring raw material, energy, and logistics costs, German chemical giant BASF announced immediate price increases across multiple product categories in Europe starting March 18, with increases up to 30%, and some even exceeding that. The price adjustments cover sectors including household care, industrial and institutional cleaning, and industrial formulations. The increases are effective immediately or will be implemented gradually according to existing contracts.

Hot Topics

Computing Power:

Alibaba Cloud announced that due to global AI demand surge and supply chain price hikes, AI computing power and storage products will increase by up to 34%. Specifically, the Pengcheng Zhenwu 810E and other computing cards will see a 5%-34% rise, and the CPFS (Intelligent Computing version) storage will increase by 30%. Insiders say that another key reason for the price hike is the “explosive growth in token calls.”

Storage Chips:

Samsung Electronics’ union announced on the 18th that a vote held since March 9 approved a “collective struggle action” with 93.1% support, and a general strike will be held in May. Zhu Keli, founder of the National Research Institute of New Economy, said the strike will significantly impact Samsung’s chip production, especially affecting DRAM and NAND flash memory capacity.

Commercial Space:

Beijing Municipal Government issued the “Measures to Promote Stable and Progressive Economic Development in 2026,” which includes expanding future industries. It emphasizes increasing investment in future sectors, with at least 20% of funding in key industries like technology, economy, and information technology directed toward future industries. It also supports expanding satellite manufacturing and operation businesses, with subsidies for related insurance.

Computing and Power Collaboration:

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently stated that future data centers will no longer be just electronic warehouses for storing files but giant factories continuously producing tokens. “Each data center or factory is physically limited by power. A 1GW (gigawatt) factory will never become 2GW—this is a law of physics and atoms. Under fixed power, the entity with the highest token throughput per watt has the lowest production cost.”

Gas Turbines:

GF Securities notes that the global supply chain for aircraft engines and gas turbines is in a high-growth cycle driven by civil aviation restocking, high defense demand, AI data center power needs, and maintenance of aircraft and turbines. The market currently shows strong demand and extreme supply constraints, with supply-demand tensions expected to intensify mid-term.

Data Centers:

According to a strategic plan released by the German government on March 17, by 2030, Germany’s general data center computing power will at least double from 2025 levels, with AI-specific computing power increasing at least fourfold.

PCB:

At Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference in San Jose, California, Nvidia launched a seemingly small but strategically significant chip—the Groq 3 Language Processing Unit (LPU). Analysts suggest that LPU outperforms GPUs in efficiency, cost, and latency, and could dominate inference markets. The growing adoption of LPU offers high growth potential and PCB opportunities related to system architecture.

Company News

Tencent Holdings:
Q4 revenue reached 194.37 billion RMB, up 13% YoY; expected 194.07 billion RMB; net profit was 58.26 billion RMB, surpassing the forecast of 55.05 billion RMB; adjusted net profit was 64.69 billion RMB, up 17% YoY, slightly below the estimate of 64.93 billion RMB.

Zotye Auto:
Its wholly owned subsidiary Zhejiang Shenkang Automotive Body Mould Co., Ltd. resumed work and production on March 18. This supports the company’s parts supply chain and lays a foundation for new platform R&D and new model production.

Wason Biologics:
The company plans to issue shares to Tengyun Xinwo at 9.63 RMB per share, raising up to 2 billion RMB, all for working capital. After issuance, Tengyun Xinwo will hold 11.51%, with a combined 14.46% held by its concerted parties. The company’s controlling shareholder will change to Tengyun Xinwo, with Huang Tao as the actual controller. Trading resumes from March 19.

Longfei Fiber:
Shareholder Changjiang Communications plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1 million shares (0.12% of total) from April 10 to July 9, 2026, via centralized bidding.

GCL System Integration:
Qianhai Dongfang Chuangye Financial Holdings completed its share reduction plan, selling 58 million shares (0.9914% of total) from March 12-17, decreasing its stake from 5.0478% to 4.0486%, no longer a major shareholder.

Guoao Technology:
Its subsidiary Haoyuan Gu plans to sell a 23.16% stake in Xin Cun Technology to Yiyuan Hui. On March 18, Haoyuan Gu signed a transfer agreement involving a transaction price of no less than 400 million RMB. Xin Cun Technology’s business includes IC design, chip manufacturing, and technical services.

Meili Ecology:
Previously, on October 21, 2025, the company received a notice from creditor Hangzhou Shengze Ying Trading Co., Ltd. that due to the company’s inability to repay due debts and apparent insolvency, but with restructuring value, it applied to Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court for reorganization and initiated pre-restructuring procedures.

Century Hengtong:
The company found that some shares held by controlling shareholder and chairman Yang Xinghai were recently frozen, totaling 11.33 million shares (11.48% of total).

Aerospace Power:
Its subsidiary Aerospace Yuanxin plans to expand capacity by investing 81 million RMB in equipment and flexible automation lines, leveraging its precision processing expertise to increase output and reduce costs.

See more major announcements of listed companies>>

Global Markets

Iran Attacks U.S. Military Bases and Kurdish Armed Bases in Iraq:
On the night of March 18, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement that its missile forces launched attacks on the U.S. Salami base in Sulaymaniyah Province and Kurdish armed bases in Zako, Sulaymaniyah.

Iran Strikes Riyadh Oil Refinery and U.S. Exclusive Zone:
On March 18, Iran announced it successfully attacked the Riyadh oil and gas joint refinery near the Saudi capital, causing explosions and large fires. The attack destroyed the U.S. military’s jet fuel reserves at the refinery, potentially paralyzing or severely disrupting fuel supply to U.S. aircraft. The refinery has been used to supply fuel to U.S. Air Force jets stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Sudan.

Powell Says He Has No Intention to Leave Fed Before Justice Department Investigation Ends:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that he has no plans to leave the Fed before the Justice Department’s investigation concludes; he will serve as interim chair until a successor is confirmed; the duration of his tenure remains undecided; he will prioritize the best interests of the Fed and the public.

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Bond Market Overview

Shibor:
On March 18, overnight Shibor was 1.3200%, up 0.10 basis points; 7-day was 1.4250%, down 0.41 basis points; 14-day was 1.5560%, up 7.65 basis points; 1-month was 1.5200%, down 0.48 basis points; 3-month was 1.5320%, down 0.38 basis points.

Euro Bonds:
In European markets, UK 10-year yields rose 4.8 basis points to 4.742%; Germany 10-year yields up 3.4 basis points to 2.940%; France 10-year yields up 5.1 basis points to 3.607%; Italy 10-year yields up 7.5 basis points to 3.731%; Spain 10-year yields up 5.6 basis points to 3.440%; Greece 10-year yields up 7.1 basis points to 3.730%.

U.S. Bonds:
In New York, 10-year Treasury yields rose 6.65 basis points to 4.2650%; 2-year yields increased 9.93 basis points to 3.7729%, trading within 3.6508%-3.7877%. Following the FOMC decision to hold rates steady, the SEP projections raised core PCE inflation expectations, and the dot plot indicated one rate cut in 2026-27, with yields slightly retreating after Powell’s press conference but then expanding since.

Commodity Futures

Domestic Futures:
On March 18, most commodities declined. Polysilicon dropped over 5%, lithium carbonate over 4%, and rubber, industrial silicon, red dates, glass, Shanghai tin, silver, and soda ash fell over 2%. Notable gains included methanol (+>3%) and ethylene glycol (+>1%).

International Gold:
COMEX gold futures for the current month fell $184.30, a 3.68% decline, to $4,823.9 per ounce. COMEX silver futures dropped $4.50, a 5.63% decline, to $75.42 per ounce. Spot gold fell $186.87, a 3.73% drop, to $4,818.88 per ounce. Spot silver declined $3.93, a 4.96% decrease, to $75.37 per ounce.

International Oil:
Oil prices rose on March 18. WTI crude futures increased $3.52 to $99.05 per barrel, up 3.68%.

International Metals:
LME copper fell $380 to $12,396 per ton; aluminum remained flat at $3,400; zinc declined $94 to $3,134; lead down $16 to $1,914; nickel down $44 to $17,151; tin down $1,662 to $45,063; cobalt unchanged at $56,290 per ton.

International Agricultural Products:
In late New York trading, Bloomberg grain index rose 1.69% to 31.6553 points, reaching a daily high of 31.7746 shortly after the FOMC announcement. CBOT corn futures up 2.09%, wheat up 2.67%, soybeans up 0.58%, soybean meal up 3.21%, soybean oil down 0.71%. CME lean hogs down 0.32%, live cattle up 0.22%, feeder cattle down 0.06%. ICE raw sugar up 2.56%, white sugar up 2.77%. Arabica coffee futures down 1.54%, “C” coffee futures down 0.75%, Robusta coffee up 1.39%. NY cocoa down 3.40% to $3,235/ton; London cocoa down 1.44%. Chicago WCE canola down 0.38%; ICE cotton down 0.10%.

Forex Market

Renminbi:
On March 18, onshore RMB closed at 6.87620 at 16:30 Beijing time, up 115 points; offshore RMB at 6.87326 at 18:00, up 143.7 points. The onshore/offshore spread at 18:00 was -17.6.

RMB Foreign Exchange Swaps:
As of 16:30 Beijing time, USD/CNY 6-month swap was -776 points; 1-year swap was -1,472 points.

U.S. Dollar:
The dollar index rose 0.52% on March 18, closing at 100.092. At the New York close, EUR/USD was 1.1516 (below 1.1542), GBP/USD was 1.3341 (below 1.3360), USD/JPY was 159.41 (above 159.00), USD/CHF was 0.7902 (above 0.7847), USD/CAD was 1.3701 (above 1.3697), USD/SEK was 9.3346 (above 9.2737).