BREAKING NEWS⚠️

The Fed held the policy rate steady at 3.50% - 3.75%. This decision came completely in line with market expectations at nearly 100% (CME FedWatch and prediction markets showed 99%+ hold probability).

Key highlights:
• Economic growth remains solid, but the labor market has slowed (job gains are low, unemployment ticking slightly higher).
• Inflation remains slightly above the 2% target and is tracking as "sticky"(sticky).
• Risks have increased due to the Iran conflict in the Middle East, oil price spikes, and geopolitical uncertainty → the Fed remained in wait-and-see mode, closely monitoring inflation risks.
• Dot plot (economic projections) updated: expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have declined (in most scenarios only one cut or zero cuts are priced in, down from prior estimates).
• Vote: The vast majority held steady; a small number of members (names like Miran for example) wanted a cut but the majority prevailed.

Market impact (near-term):
• No major surprise since the decision came as expected → volatility remained low.
• Powell's press conference (around 21:30 EST) will set the tone: If hawkish (emphasizing inflation + geopolitical risk), the dollar strengthens, USD/TRY and bond yields rise, stocks (especially tech) face pressure.
• Oil remains elevated → energy stocks positive, stagflation fears may increase.
• Overall outlook: Fed has postponed/reduced cuts → longer-term higher rate environment, strong dollar pressure persists. Gold mixed with geopolitical support, BIST cautious.

In short: Fed in patience mode, limited 2026 cuts due to inflation risks from the Iran conflict. Markets currently in "wait-and-see" position; direction clarifies after Powell's comments.