Jefferies Report: Widespread Adoption of Stablecoins Could Lead to 3% to 5% Deposit Losses for Banks Over the Next Five Years

Gate News reports that on March 11, Jefferies, an investment bank, released a research report stating that as the use of digital dollars expands in payments and the crypto market, the popularity of stablecoins may gradually erode traditional bank profits. Analysts expect that within the next five years, core bank deposits could decline by 3% to 5%, leading to an average bank profit decrease of about 3%, primarily due to rising financing costs and pressure on fee income.

The report suggests that while stablecoins are unlikely to trigger sudden bank runs, the gradual loss of deposits from emerging activity-based revenue opportunities and payment use cases should not be overlooked. The GENIUS Act of 2025 prohibits regulated stablecoin issuers from directly paying yields to passive holders, reducing the risk of sharp short-term deposit outflows. However, in the long term, activities such as stablecoin trading, payment settlement rewards, and DeFi staking and lending protocols could still pose similar threats to bank deposits. Jefferies notes that banks with a high proportion of retail and interest-bearing deposits face greater risks.